Dear Readers
Find here your free selection of academic books on Economics and Finance from bookboon.com
http://bookboon.com/en/banking-financial-markets-ebooks
The website is a useful service for students of financing who require a quick refreshment of financial academia or for working people and laymen who need educational refreshment and a recap
Selected interesting titles -
Foreign Exchange Market: An Introduction
http://bookboon.com/en/foreign-exchange-market-an-introduction-ebook
Banking: An Introduction -
http://bookboon.com/en/banking-an-introduction-ebook
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
Forex interactive charts
Powered by ForexGoer
Forex charts for traders education
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit academia for free education on in the forex markets
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
The US Dollar refuses to drift lower for the weekend. Strong fundamentals come to bear even in the face of recent economic data pointing to inflation decreasing which has recently spurred the Treasury markets, read at Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-28/treasuries-rally-as-yellen-sees-low-inflation-declining-further in addition some surveys in the US are actually pointing to a slow down of US manufacturing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/we-ve-just-received-a-bunch-of-disappointing-news-on-u-s-manufacturing and so the jury is still out on possible rate hikes which will very much depend upon the US stock market to make use of the cheap available credit to engineer sturdy economic growth for 2015. The S&P 500 posted its best monthly gain since October 2011 today Friday. The S&P 500 gained 5.5 percent for February and the Nasdaq has risen 7.1 percent also which is its best monthly performance ever since January 2012. Certainly New York Fed President William Dudley makes that case with his recent comments that better late than never - http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/27/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN0LV2MJ20150227
The Euro bashing party has stopped as fears of a Grexit dissipate and fundamentals of Euro land debt come under core analysis. Although the Eur is trending sideways at the moment vs USD the recent rate of decline slow down has more to do with the lack of any convincing data to push the USD higher. Given that the ECB has only just initiated a Q.E. program largely because of Greece, it is hard to defend the EUR as lower future prospects may seem likely as the ECB pumps more liquidity into the bonds markets. More importantly, the International Monetary Market (IMM) non-commercial positioning, which covers currency investors' positions for the week ending 17 February 2015, shows us that for the first time since 2 December 2014, the net short positions on the EUR have actually decreased, which implies a reduced interest in selling the euro. In short, large currency speculators are now sitting on the sidelines since the major component of the sell pressure on the EUR has already taken effect.
Chart courtesy Bloomberg.
Crude Oil seems to have found it's balance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has reduced its 2015 U.S. crude
production forecast to 9.3 million barrels a day down from 9.42
million in November. So the overall Saudi plan of tumbling prices is starting to pay off. USA is cutting back on production and layoffs are mounting. High cost firms are going to the wall as firms look to become more efficient and speculators are on the run as oil fundamentals tries to establish an equilibrium price for this year in the 45-55 range. Although Saudi will suffer short term budget deficits for 2015, it is hoping to regain market share and re-balance the world crude oil production order.
US DX
95.256 -0.001 -0.00%
Support 94.620 Resistance 95.790
EUR
1.11955 -0.00105 -0.09%
Support 1.11350 Resistance 1.12790
Crude Oil
49.39 +1.22 +2.49%
Support 47.91 Resistance 50.87
Gold
1213.350 +3.435 +0.28%
Support 1,197.0 Resistance 1,227.2
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
Fed semantics changes did not spark of a large spec position in the cash and options market for a good reason though the Dollar closed slightly firmer on the March DX contract. There are mixed signals going on which is spooking the larger specs. First Fed Chair Yellen hints of possible rate hikes as part of the going process of acclimatising the market to a new culture of rate rises, then we get a whole load of data to show that consumer prices are not expanding as robustly as we thought. But that, in the wider context of analysis, maybe part of the stability of the consumer price index and climate of benign inflation. The January consumer price index actually fell .7%, in comparison to an estimate of a .6% decline. The January consumer price index decline is really the first year on year decrease since October 2009. Furthermore, given global major central bank sentiments to ease credit rather than constrict and the recent abatement of selling off on the 10yr US Treasury, plus global market interest rate differentials, the case for a Dollar push through the 100 mark is certainly on hold for the moment. But Goldman Sachs are warning of firmer yields in the long run towards the end of this year as bond prices may get routed. Read on Bloomberg here - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/goldman-asset-predicts-bond-rout-as-standish-sees-low-yields Yet for the moment, easy money is spurring the Us stock market http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-27/the-fed-is-providing-rocket-fuel-for-u-s-stocks-wren and that is what corporate America still cant get enough of at the moment as interest rate products continue to trade sideways at the bottom of the credit cycle. Oil sank as did the commodities currencies the Aussie and Canadian wholly because of the economic conditions of over supply in the market and record high stock piling. Sooner or later production cut backs have to take effect and political motivations find economic grounding because quite simply we cannot produce more than we can process plus stockpile. The lack of any real scare and confrontational news seem to allow the bullion markets continue to trade in the doldrums.
US DX
95.180 -0.077 -0.10%
Support 93.605 Resistance 96.275
EUR
1.119765 -0.016670 -1.47%
Support 1.10583 Resistance 1.14523
Crude Oil
48.88 +0.71 +1.39%
Support 45.64 Resistance 52.48
Gold
1209.29 +0.99 +0.08%
Support 1,194.6 Resistance 1,227.6
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
Semantics - Fed watch is all about 'semantics.' Will they, wont they?
According to the Wall Street Journal's main Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath, Fed Chair - Yellen may have deftly "laid the groundwork for interest-rate increases later this year." Yellen told lawmakers yesterday that the U.S. economy is making steady progress towards what the Fed defines as the "maximum employment" — an unemployment rate which lies between 5.2 percent and 5.5 percent. Now since the jobless rate in January 2015 stood at 5.7 percent, which is down from the remarkably high 10 percent recorded in late 2009, then we are almost within touching distance of the definition of 'full employment'. Yellen told lawmakers - "Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming data, the committee is reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2% objective." So the key question seems to hover around consumer inflation. But the US currently is nowhere near the target of 2%. In English - more semantics - yes we intend to raise rates when inflation rears its head but for the moment we have strong steady economic growth without immediate cause for concern. Sigh of relief for the stock markets but the market is still buying into widening interest rate differentials.
US DX
94.186 -0.012 -0.02%
Support 93.982 Resistance 94.602
EUR
1.136520 +0.001615 +0.14%
Support 1.13100 Resistance 1.14180
Crude Oil
50.61 -0.38 -0.77%
Support 47.38 Resistance 53.08
Gold
1205.80 -3.95 -0.33%
Support 1,193.6 Resistance 1,215.6
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
US DX showing remarkable resilience but overwhelmingly long term support is due to yield differentials in the bonds markets between US, EU and Japan. You cannot get a better yield in terms of quality. Crude oil interest waning again as fundamentals of oversupply and clogged up sea channels come to bar down upon the longs. Give the Euro zone stability consolidating there's not much point either of flight to safety as gold slips yet again.
In a recent article just released in Reuters now Fed Chair Yellen http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN0LS0BD20150224 releases another candid remark to the US Senate Banking Committee that the Fed is considering rate hikes, which underscores the real strength of the US economy in spite of last week's blip. Within context of a sagging Euro land feeling it will now only take a few more releases of positive information on the US economy for the large currency specs to begin contemplating the next push for the US DX thru the 100 mark.
US DX
94.369 -0.107 -0.14%
Support 94.140 Resistance 95.280
EUR
1.134505 +0.001880 +0.17%
Support 1.12590 Resistance 1.14010
Crude Oil
49.28 0.00 0.00%
Support 47.78 Resistance 51.08
Gold
1210.110 +8.110 +0.67%
Support 1,182.8 Resistance 1,211.6
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
Greece and the story of Euro currency resilience is the theme of an article on Bloomberg today http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-23/greece-debt-wrangling-hands-surprise-to-euro-bears-currencies?cmpid=yhoo a few years back the prolonged crisis would have been ample ammunition for large currency speculators to take decisive short action. there are 2 points to watch out for here at the moment. 1. political indecision at the ECB doesnt necessarily immediately translate into an investor panic on the Euro fixed income market. 2. we have to place this ECB wrangling juxtaposition with another event in the US which is now playing itself out given last weeks dire economic indicators and that is a possible fall in yield in US debt. For several months now the Fed has been trying to wean the market and get it acclimatised for the inevitable rate hike. But yesterday the bonds markets got over the shock of last weeks poor US data and took action. Yields in US treasury fell to 0.19% giving Dollar investors serious concern to rethink their major Dollar long positions. So far the difference between global quality yield curves has led investors to flock to US 1-2 year debt. When investors can take home 2% yield on US 10 yr debt over 0.4% on German debt the fundamentals for Dollar investment with its additional benign inflation still looks strong in spite of the blip last week in US economic data. All in all currency speculators may yet prove unwilling to take large bets against the Dollar. A short term top may have been posted at the 95 but the shorts are quick on the dips and nothing substantial there. we could be in for a slow pullback to the 90 mark but without large speculative action as the large players hold off for another reason for a Dollar rally and surely it will come soon enough. Crude oil is drifting lower again, there seems to be no fundamental reason why prices should sustain a challenge above the 55 on the WTI. It is simply a matter of economic fundamentals. the market cant take any more of this high end production. something has to give or we may see the shorts running down to the low 40's again.
US DX
94.577 +0.024 +0.03%
Support 94.042 Resistance 95.332
EUR
1.13330 -0.00510 -0.45%
Support 1.12447 Resistance 1.14427
Crude Oil
49.52 +0.07 +0.14%
Support 47.38 Resistance 52.02
Gold
1201.975 -1.010 -0.08%
Support 1,180.9 Resistance 1,220.3
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Forex interactive charts
Powered by ForexGoer
Forex charts for education
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit academia for free education on in the forex markets
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
In Japanese Candlestick charts shooting stars are often known for price action where traders attempt to shoot for the stars but usually come sailing down back to earth. Shooting stars can either be dark or light, red or green in the diagram below to symbolize either a close that is lower or higher than the opening but with settlement for the day much lower in the form of a thick set body at the bottom of the price action of the day.
In the daily chart below of the EUR/USD on Jan 2015 the market price settled into 2 failed shooting stars in quick succession which became the precursor to a current sideways trading channel as neither bulls nor bears could find the strength to force a definitive direction.
shooting star 1 - red
30th Jan
open 1.132
high 1.136
low 1.128
close 1.128
shooting star 2 - green
2nd Feb
open 1.128
high 1.136
low 1.128
close 1.134
The failed attempts to lift the market on Jan 30 and Feb 2 after the dramatic plunge on Jan 16th set the technical tone that reflected the ongoing Greek debt negotiations with the market failing to find a sense of direction as ECB ministers sat for days without settlement. Ultimately a 4 month agreement was made on a debt solution. But that remains a temporary fix. Strong economic data from Germany may have held the EUR for the moment but would that be sufficient to hold the EUR up for longer as persistent worries over Greece continues? Technical indicators suggest lower prices are to come. It is just a matter of time for the large spec,s on the sidelines at the moment, to decide when to take another plunge and short the EUR. There are more fundamental reasons the EUR should fall as the ECB grapples with the Greek debt issue and overall sluggish economic growth fails to inspire the market for a higher EUR.
Further reading -
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Dear Readers
Find here your free selection of academic books on Economics and Finance from bookboon.com
http://bookboon.com/en/economics-and-finance-ebooks
The website is a useful service for students of financing who require a quick refreshment of financial academia or for working people and laymen who need educational refreshment and a recap
Selected interesting titles -
Modern Microeconomics - http://bookboon.com/en/modern-microeconomics-ebook
Essentials of Microeconomics - http://bookboon.com/en/microeconomics-uk-ebook
Essentials of macroeconomics - http://bookboon.com/en/macroeconimics-uk-ebook
Advanced Macroeconomics - http://bookboon.com/en/advanced-macroeconomics-ebook
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
Greece gets a 4 month debt extension, the Euro zone remains skeptical, but traders can breathe again, forget about the gargantuan 26 trillion dollar currency derivatives exposure and watch the EUR stabilize at the 1.13 level with a relief for the moment. "Tonight was a first step in this process of rebuilding trust .. We have established common ground again to reach agreement on this statement" said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the 19-nation Eurogroup, at the news conference. Moreover the US sighed a relief too as the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 154.67 at an all-time high of 18,40.44 on the back of this welcome news. as much as can be said investors do not want to see a Grexit and instability in the Euro zone. The Greek debt crisis has to be resolved for the health of the global debt markets.
The USD had a direful week of bad news and yet impressively maintained the high ground at 94. It all started on
tuesday - Empire State Mfg Index was worse than expected, then the
Housing Market Index (HMI) was worse than expected. Along came wednesday -
MBA Purchase Applications were expected to be bad, but turned out even
worse. PPI (inflation) data was worse than expected, Industrial
Production data was 50% worse than expected and on thursday the Philly Fed Survey and Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) were worse than expected. Yet the Dollar held the 94 ground. Very impressive.
In an interesting article on Reuters today it was noted that Dollar net longs have begun to shrink which is quite interesting as in the present sense it reflects an expectation of US economic weakness read full article on Reuters here - http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/markets-forex-cftc-idUSL1N0VU29Q20150220
US DX
94.320 -0.075 -0.10%
Support 93.667 Resistance 95.227
EUR
1.13780 +0.00095 +0.08%
Support 1.12183 Resistance 1.15243
Crude Oil
50.76 -1.07 -2.05%
Support 49.56 Resistance 53.12
Gold
1201.955 -5.215 -0.43%
Support 1,188.4 Resistance 1,223.6
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
Market Commentary
For both the EUR and USD the sideways channel continues as neither side shows signs of yielding. The EUR drifting towards eventual Greek debt consensus. US jobless data was very positive as state unemployment benefits dropped by 21,000, and that was a figure twice as much as anticipated. This reinforces the growth prospectus of the US market as the labour market grows in strength.
The market doesnt buy the dovish comments of the Fed and is upbeat on growth prospects. The EUR is quiet as Germany haggles and delays over a final decision on the bail out and the Greeks starting to accuse them of bweing too 'negative.' See Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/germany-leaves-door-open-to-deal-based-on-greek-proposal
Crude oil shows no economic reason why spot and futures prices should go lower given the job cutbacks, drill withdrawals and strong economic growth factors in the US economy. Sopeculative ideas based on geopolitics also have had their play so we do not expect shorts to enter into the fray unless we see price drift higher towards 60 again this year. Gold is just drifting lower and lower on the basis of a complete dearth of bad news.
US DX
94.420 +0.025 +0.03%
Support 93.674 Resistance 94.944
EUR
1.136685 -0.005430 -0.48%
Support 1.12973 Resistance 1.14893
Crude Oil
51.96 +0.13 +0.25%
Support 47.83 Resistance 53.81
Gold
1206.875 -9.925 -0.82%
Support 1,194.2 Resistance 1,229.6
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex academia and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures
and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is
being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of
any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.
ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE
UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All
trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and
illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory
recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -
http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility
for the trading actions of its readers.
