30th April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

As expected across the board the USD is in retreat fending off mild and serious skirmishes. The woeful GDP news hit the wires and the specs made a move pouncing like wolves in the night. Banks followed with commercial orders on the change and then as buy stops got hit momentum on the EUR accumulated and ETF's became obligated to take new long positions. But as expected the EUR slammed into the 1.13 unable to push further for the weekend closing. that the EUR made so much rapid ground was largely due to the big specs making the push yesterday to seize the profit potential.
For example the Currency Shares Euro Currency Trust (FXE) was up 0.7% today Thursday after strengthening 3.6% over the past week alone. Usually ETF's follow the market action to reflect how speculators price in Forex.

He who dares wins.

This weekend will give traders some serious time out and reflections over the USD and the US economy and where it is going. Should the EUR/ USD not find any significant interest at the 1.13 barrier then we may see fresh grounds for the USD to slide back to the all important 1.1515 mark. There needs to be some more blood letting in the market until balance can be attained between the longs and the shorts. Fresh dollar longs should wait for a couple more key US indicators before deciding if the temporary retreat is going to become a more serious correction within the next 2 weeks. what is holding back the USD from a collapse is because of the strengthening demand for US Treasuries. See on Bloomberg the report on yield increases which strengthens the case for USD investment in the longer term when the current slew of bad sluggish US economic data can be shrugged off. the fundamentals of US yields are there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/trading-patterns-show-more-pain-for-gross-s-volatility-play

Interestingly, though crude oil rebounded strongly as the USD declined the precious metals did not fare well at all since for the long term most funds are in agreement that the current technical correction should only serve as a temporary pause before the USD marches ahead again since the bond market differentials serve as a reminder of USD long term strength, and now the sudden emergence of the prospect of growing commodity inflation.

Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

94.895     +0.084 +0.11%

Support 93.838 Resistance  95.978
Forward 1 year - 96.600. Low growth positive line.

EUR  

1.120980     -0.000355 -0.03%

Support   1.10093  Resistance 1.14013

Forward 1 year - 1.13620. Low growth positive line.

Crude Oil  

59.72     +0.09 +0.15%

Support   57.82   Resistance 60.76
Forward 1 year - 64.0. Medium growth positive line.

Gold

1182.60     -2.40 -0.20%

Support  1,157.2     Resistance 1,220.0

Forward 1 year  -  1,188.1. Flat line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

29th April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Potential major USD reversal is on the table now as weaker than expected US GDP data becomes the final piece in the picture needed to convince traders that the long trade game is now up. Every move has its cycle in time and we cant say that the warnings weren't there for the past few weeks. It's official - the US economy
grew at a very weak +0.2% in Q1 2015 in a totally non-inspiring data release that now gives the Dollar bulls an almighty cause to run for cover for the weeks ahead. Eur/ USD smashed through the 1.10 today and is currently trading in Asian session thursday at the 1.11 level and holding in thin Asian trading. Technicians will point to a significant breakout of price and direction and will be waiting to see what major price action lies ahead with the Euro session opening. dealer noise is fervently hitting the wires with talk of a push to the 1.13 mark this morning and with a dearth of Dollar news in support long players will have to run for short covering which may add to price increments which could then trigger automated buying orders if sell stops are hit around the 1.11 - 1.13. it been there for some time now. Net shorts on the USDX at 60%, Grexit factor diminished and a slew of plodding US data the last 8 weeks have all been sending red flags on the USD.

Read on bloomberg an explanation why the USD is falling in spite of bond market differentials.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-29/u-s-yields-are-rising-and-the-dollar-is-falling-what-gives-

That crude oil can hold at the 58 mark in am market of huge production volume and serious shortfall in storage is very significant should the USDX slide to the 90 mark. The slide in the USD will massively increase the Saudi chances of winning the crude oil price war, having engineered a price descent to kill off the US  shale industry. Similarly the precious metals should receive large spec interest now that we have had a major confirmation in economic fundamentals to send the USD as a haven for investment into a short term retreat mode at least for the next 1-2 months till Q2 GDP figures are analyzed.

Small traders watch keenly for USD weakness and entry points as large specs will be looking for an opportunity to build momentum in the days ahead. Watch for the tell-tale footprints of the giants and where they are heading. All the cards are on the table indicating momentum is going to push the USD lower until all the weaker long shave been flushed out of the market. As William Pitt the Younger put it in 1806 - "Roll up that map we shan't be needing it for a while!" I can see USD fighting a continuous skirmish of rearguard defensive action all the way to Christmas 2015.

Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

95.174     -0.034 -0.04% 

Support 93.911 Resistance  97.001

EUR  

1.11129     -0.00109 -0.10%

Support   1.08627  Resistance 1.13227

Crude Oil  

58.73     +0.15 +0.26%

Support   55.36   Resistance 60.94

Gold

1204.150     -0.920 -0.08%

Support  1,195.3      Resistance 1,220.9

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

28th April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Markets round the globe on standby by as traders watch for Fed comments and the next direction of the all important USD. Whilst markets have one opinion on where rates should be the Fed has other ideas considering economic data and policy making. Should market prices be set by the Fed or should rates be determined by the market becomes the perennial questions as viewpoints begin to stretch at this important year. The U.S. Commerce Department is scheduled to issue its first snapshot of Q1  GDP on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Even though the Us economy grew at a very slow pace in Q1 growth is expected to pick up given that we are now over the shock drop in oil prices and Dollar increases in tandem. stock analysts predict further growth in US stocks and increased dividends as a result of the Fed not making an anticipated move in September this year.

Today's article on Reuters highlights the time lag involved between price movement and physical demand. Now that prices are lower than last year Asian demand for crude oil is booming.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/28/us-saudi-oil-china-idUSKBN0NJ17F20150428

Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

96.171     +0.063 +0.08%

Support 95.471 Resistance  95.471

EUR  

1.096350     -0.000785 -0.07%

Support   1.08190      Resistance 1.10810

Crude Oil  

56.91     -0.15 -0.26%

Support   55.23   Resistance 58.75

Gold

1211.070     +1.170 +0.10%

Support  1,193    Resistance 1,225

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

27th April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Were we talking about technical charting alone across the board USD is deep into over-sold territory and long over due a technical correction and reversal. However, technical data is but a mere reflection of fundamentals phenomena that drives the markets to and fro. The long term fundamentals are for USD strength but for now we have a pause in the market. UDX is holding at the 96 mark but that figure is merely holding up with the market largely oversold and without the solid fundamental engine of good news on the US economy to justify talk of immediate Us interest rate increases.

Looking ahead this week traders are waiting for the 2015 Q1 GDP report on the US economy. Economists expect 1% GDP annualized growth which is hardly room enough for cheer and may yet send the USD on a down slide across the board. Watch out also for softening statements from the FOM. In the Euro zone all the hype of the Grexit is fast waning and the EUR/ USd is not only starting to claw itself back but also weigh in strongly with time as the ECB QE program becomes an open familiarity in practice as well as concept. Opinion polls in Greece now point to an understanding that hardships lie ahead but that the path of Greece is firmly tied with the Euro.

Lower USD forecasts has equity analysts seeing new room for growth. See on Bloomberg - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-27/americans-aren-t-miserable-enough-for-the-bull-market-in-stocks-to-end

Lower USD forecasts should also help the commodities markets in particular crude oil and gold.

 

So we are at the crossroads with a big week ahead with the US GDP figures and traders will need to watch out for immediate jolts that may spring cumulative momentum and the feeling now is that there could be more than a little nudge to take the USD down some more this week.

Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

96.698     -0.304 -0.39%

Support 96.406 Resistance  98.086

EUR  

1.087810     +0.001525 +0.14%

Support   1.07417  Resistance 1.09737

Crude Oil  

56.65    -0.50 -0.87%

Support   55.75   Resistance 58.65

Gold

1202.825     +20.865 +1.77%

Support  1,160.2      Resistance 1,202.8

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

Dr Michael J. Duckett video on the power of the mind and wealth

Prices move up and prices move down and more often than not, and quite hilariously, many analysts get it wrong often to the detriment of their own readers.

I can remember one day when I was a little child on a summer holiday in Switzerland I was playing in the garden on the slopes of the Alps with a twig trying to poke fun at some busy ants. No matter how hard I tried to interrupt the train they would keep rank and file and march on around my twig and then around some little pebbles as I erected a barricade. On and on relentlessly they marched with single purpose oblivious to the infant threat looming above them. Then I could almost smell moisture in the air and turned my head to see the distant skies blacken and all the bird flying over head all in the same direction as the ants, almost as it nature was at union in purpose before the approaching threat of wind and downpour. We price ourselves on being super intelligent and aware of every single phenomenon on the planet. Yet when the Boxing Day tsunami his Thailand and Sri Lanka how many people actually paid attention to leopards, deers and elephants all rushing together in a single direction? Worse, can you remember people wading into the retreating waters to collect seashells? And then  the tourists on the beach actually standing their clicking their cameras as the tsunami came rolling in?

This morning I could not help notice several readers hammering a well known stock analyst for his trade formation alerts that went totally awry. And when pressed for an explanation they usually squeal "contagion" or something equally mysterious to throw off the scent whilst they make a dash for it!

Many bank analysts predicted 20 Dollar oil and USDX 110 based upon their Fibonacci and their Elliot waves and what not when exactly the reverse happened as economic fundamentals of demand and supply hammered out the true mean price after a fluctuation.

Thus what i am trying to say is yes look at your charts as a stargazer looks to the maps of the heavens for directions. But the ancient Greek astronomer Thales in the 6th century B.C. actually missed a step one evening whilst gazing up at the starry firmament and subsequently fell into a ditch and thus ignominiously his illustrious career ended. So always keep your eyes peeled, your nostrils open and your ears finely tuned to market movements and watch fundamental data like a hawk, particularly noting how this week the Dollar reacted negatively to a strew of terrible economic indications.

Watch the following video by Dr Michael J. Duckett on wealth and the secret powers of the mind.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

Forex Charts 25th April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex interactive charts

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Forex charts for technical analysis


Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit service for free education on in the forex markets


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.

24th April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

On the futures contract USDX took a predictable nosedive as traders cleared out flat with the death of positive USD news to carry the USD forwards against its counter-parties. thus the EUr/ Usd high closing at 1.08 for the week reflects more the weakness in sentiment for USD outlook much more than any inherent value for the EUR. Traders want to see a break out either way through the 1.05 or the 1.10 and so we are currently in a sideways trading channel on the EUR/ USD. This week has been another tiresome week for the USD noting the following key important indicators - 

1. Housing starts for March rose at an anemic 0.2% to an annual rate of 926,000, and that was expectations of more than one million. Year on comparison shows  that housing starts are down 2.5%. So much for all the recent talk of a US property bubble building up again!

2. Industrial production dropped by 0.6%, an that was almost double the decline analysts were expecting.

3. Retail sales rose 0.9%. This was the first increase in the past three months and biggest monthly increase over the year. yet the figure was a dissapointment as economists were looking for an increase of 1.1%.

4. Now, interestingly, the Fed's own Beige Book stated that the US economy in February and March 2015 was improving only "modestly" or "moderately" across most districts. The report used 44 variations of the word "weak" in comparison to the January report which used only 17 such variations of weakness.

For more detailed analysis on fed

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-24/it-already-looks-like-this-quarter-will-be-an-economic-disappointment

Also see Bloomberg weighing in on a potential Dollar reversal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-04-24/u-s-dollar-will-pull-back-this-summer-pelosky


Technical data is at best an probability based upon historical prices. However as we have witnessed in the case of crude oil the last few weeks; technical data can also get it completely wrong as the technicians that predicted 30 and 20 Dollar bbl had to revise as the market consolidated at 50 dollar. Market forces of demand and supply for the physical settled prices.

Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices - as for example the clear out on the USDX yesterday which was largely reflective on a build up of poor economic releases on the US economy this week.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

96.898     -0.413 -0.53%

Support 96.406  Resistance  98.086

EUR  

1.087340     +0.005765 +0.53%

Support   1.07417  Resistance 1.09737

Crude Oil  

57.48     -0.26 -0.45%

Support   55.75   Resistance 58.65

Gold

1179.420     -13.350 -1.12%

Support  1,160.2      Resistance 1,202.8

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

23rd April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Technically speaking, the waning support for USD is pushing the EUR towards the 1.12 slowly and steadily. It is not as if USD is going to all of a sudden dramatically collapse. what we have here are the lighter shorts being cleared out one by one until a balance can be restored in the market for EUR/ USD. Noting the recent drip of sluggish US economic data reports and given the dearth of positive news as well as the bond differentials already factored into price USd has to pull back and yield ground. But this is not going to be easy as between 1.10 and 1.12 there are massive shorts in the market and it would take significant Euro data to overpower the 1.12 position. Buoyancy in the Euro equity markets alone is not sufficient demonstration of valid grounds for speculators to have a push at the 1.12 mark. That would take at least a quarter of strong repetitive economic growth data to roll back the shorts in the market and confirm a reversal and technical break out beyond. What we are really looking at here is a temporary lull due to lack of Dollar news. any failed breach of the 1.10 can send the EUR crashing back down to parity with a new wave of freshly entered shorts at any botched attempt. Long term most analysts are bearish on the EUR/ USD prospects. In the mean time volatility on the EUR/ USD can send the pair anywhere between 1.05 and 1.09 in the short term at an instant.

See on Bloomberg - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/the-u-s-economy-hasn-t-disappointed-analysts-this-much-since-the-great-recession

Crude oil  is consistently impressing holding the mark at the 55-60 Dollar range sideways trading indicating an evening out between physical demand and supply at a higher price than what specs had anticipated. This fact is concerning the US Fed to rigorously monitor the effects of crude prices on inflation. Finally last month in March China surpassed India as the largest buyer of gold with 70 billion US Dollars. It would take a serious test of the 1,210 Dollar to gather spec interest to push bullion upwards.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

97.409     +0.098 +0.13%

Support 96.501  Resistance  99.121

EUR  

1.080905     +0.011420 +1.07%

Support   1.06047  Resistance 1.09667

Crude Oil  

57.47     -0.27 -0.48%

Support   54.65   Resistance 59.95

Gold

1193.400     +6.250 +0.53%

Support  1,178.0       Resistance 1,205.6

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

22nd April Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

European equities were rather flat on lack of earnings strength but Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that he was confident Greece would reach a deal with its international lenders and that helped to buoy the EUR/ USD. With the USD overgrown there is a significant threat that a weakening Dollar could lessen the demand for US government debt from foreign bond traders and investors. In fact half of the US treasury market is dominated by international investors, in particular, Chinese. Us economic data is starting to sag in increasing frequency and comments from the US fed appear to indicate a delayed introduction of rate hikes. the problem is that if the USD starts a reversal as it surely may, then the Us bonds markets may also suffer as a consequence. Most analysts are now looking to the end of the year for rate revision as the hype of US economic growth is yet unproven and in fact the USD investment may yet prove to be too much too soon.

A retreating USD may give fresh impetus to commodities like crude oil and the bullion markets. Dollar longs must consider the dearth of positive Dollar news to support further Dollar growth and a push of the USDX to the 100 mark and beyond. The next likely dollar scenario would be a lull as us economic data slows further as commodity prices rise and then if inflation starts to grow the US fed may have to consider 25 basis points rate hike and that would then spur the USD back into action as well as the US bond markets. Dollar longs consider growing evidence for a reversal and look to option covers if a market position is to be maintained for the long term.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

98.195     +0.131 +0.17%

Support 97.299  Resistance  98.769

EUR  

1.071000     -0.001435 -0.13%

Support   1.06643  Resistance 1.08503

Crude Oil  

56.25     +0.09 +0.16%

Support   54.90   Resistance 57.82

Gold

1187.185     -14.005 -1.17%

Support   1,172.7       Resistance 1,211.5

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers