Forex Market Commentary
EUR bounce in the market; don't be misguided; it's nothing to do with any intrinsic appreciation in value and sentiment in the EUR. with the overwhelming net shorts in play traders getting a little bit anxious about the USD charge uphill are short covering position to reduce some obvious bulk in position. The EUR/ USD may push to the 1.10 and break through but there is very little consolidating strength. this is more of a case of Dollar pause in the market for the moment and any EUR/ USD longs look for a quick exit because it only takes 1 sensible data release to turn the USD back into a rampant march with fresh longs coming in, so trailing stops are needed with caution. With Sovereign yields across the Euro zone plummeting on the long end of the yield curve there is very little sense in parking your money in the Euro zone when you can achieve much better returns with dollar bond yields.
The Dow shot up to 18034.93 with a robust +208.63 or +1.17% on the back of increasing sentiment that the USD is losing steam and a more stable USD will help US exporterers increase earnings.
Read on Bloomberg today more warnings and concerns about the US economy and its continuous under-shooting analyst expectations -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/the-u-s-economy-keeps-disappointing
The Dow shot up to 18034.93 with a robust +208.63 or +1.17% on the back of increasing sentiment that the USD is losing steam and a more stable USD will help US exporterers increase earnings.
Read on Bloomberg today more warnings and concerns about the US economy and its continuous under-shooting analyst expectations -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/the-u-s-economy-keeps-disappointing
That the US economy is starting to show signs of strain even before it has begun its path of stable economic growth just really goes to show how weaker the US economy is and how distorted the market has become being fed on a low interest rate policy which has not pushed the US economy forwards towards rapod economic growth over the last 3 years.
Another important consideration is oil. Crude oil has to go back up based upon the simple economics of demand and supply and that will pressure the dollar to come to heel.
Reuters run an interesting article today on Saudi crude oil production at its highest for April this year. As a result US shale production has been curtailed and possibly damaged since it will take a year to mobilize labor and plant and capital again with the upswing in oil prices. That Saudi manipulated the global price crash of crude oil, cutbacks of US production and subsequent price consolidation and growth is a remarkable testimony to the power of oil to shape global economics.
Please read -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/20/us-oil-saudi-minister-exclusive-idUSKBN0NB0KI20150420
Another important consideration is oil. Crude oil has to go back up based upon the simple economics of demand and supply and that will pressure the dollar to come to heel.
Reuters run an interesting article today on Saudi crude oil production at its highest for April this year. As a result US shale production has been curtailed and possibly damaged since it will take a year to mobilize labor and plant and capital again with the upswing in oil prices. That Saudi manipulated the global price crash of crude oil, cutbacks of US production and subsequent price consolidation and growth is a remarkable testimony to the power of oil to shape global economics.
Please read -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/20/us-oil-saudi-minister-exclusive-idUSKBN0NB0KI20150420
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
97.446 -0.247 -0.32%
Support 96.776 Resistance 98.496
EUR
1.080600 +0.004435 +0.41%
Support 1.06847 Resistance 1.09147
Crude Oil
57.66 -0.45 -0.78%
Support 56.01 Resistance 58.99
Gold
1204.500 +6.310 +0.53%
Support 1,191.8 Resistance 1,213.4
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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