Forex Market Commentary
Were we talking about technical charting alone across the board USD is deep into over-sold territory and long over due a technical correction and reversal. However, technical data is but a mere reflection of fundamentals phenomena that drives the markets to and fro. The long term fundamentals are for USD strength but for now we have a pause in the market. UDX is holding at the 96 mark but that figure is merely holding up with the market largely oversold and without the solid fundamental engine of good news on the US economy to justify talk of immediate Us interest rate increases.
Looking ahead this week traders are waiting for the 2015 Q1 GDP report on the US economy. Economists expect 1% GDP annualized growth which is hardly room enough for cheer and may yet send the USD on a down slide across the board. Watch out also for softening statements from the FOM. In the Euro zone all the hype of the Grexit is fast waning and the EUR/ USd is not only starting to claw itself back but also weigh in strongly with time as the ECB QE program becomes an open familiarity in practice as well as concept. Opinion polls in Greece now point to an understanding that hardships lie ahead but that the path of Greece is firmly tied with the Euro.
Lower USD forecasts has equity analysts seeing new room for growth. See on Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-27/americans-aren-t-miserable-enough-for-the-bull-market-in-stocks-to-end
Lower USD forecasts should also help the commodities markets in particular crude oil and gold.
Looking ahead this week traders are waiting for the 2015 Q1 GDP report on the US economy. Economists expect 1% GDP annualized growth which is hardly room enough for cheer and may yet send the USD on a down slide across the board. Watch out also for softening statements from the FOM. In the Euro zone all the hype of the Grexit is fast waning and the EUR/ USd is not only starting to claw itself back but also weigh in strongly with time as the ECB QE program becomes an open familiarity in practice as well as concept. Opinion polls in Greece now point to an understanding that hardships lie ahead but that the path of Greece is firmly tied with the Euro.
Lower USD forecasts has equity analysts seeing new room for growth. See on Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-27/americans-aren-t-miserable-enough-for-the-bull-market-in-stocks-to-end
Lower USD forecasts should also help the commodities markets in particular crude oil and gold.
So we are at the crossroads with a big week ahead with the US GDP figures and traders will need to watch out for immediate jolts that may spring cumulative momentum and the feeling now is that there could be more than a little nudge to take the USD down some more this week.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
96.698 -0.304 -0.39%
Support 96.406 Resistance 98.086
EUR
1.087810 +0.001525 +0.14%
Support 1.07417 Resistance 1.09737
Crude Oil
56.65 -0.50 -0.87%
Support 55.75 Resistance 58.65
Gold
1202.825 +20.865 +1.77%
Support 1,160.2 Resistance 1,202.8
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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