Forex Charts 26th Feb 2016

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Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit service for free education on in the forex markets


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Weekly - 27th February 2016 - Brexit looms ahead

Forex Market Commentary  

The year of the Brexit.

Last year 2015 it was the turn of the Euro and speculation that the member state Greece would leave the monetary union of Europe. This year 2016 it is the turn of the UK and the looming referendum. As speculation feeds into price volatility so does opportunity for price discovery present itself. Monday this week was particularly bad for 'cable' as the Pound fell 2.4% at one point to register the fastest depreciation since 2009 when the Bank of England cut rates.  Whatever the eventual result of the UK vote large specs will certainly hover over the currency pair in search of any signs of weakness for some momentum trade action and so watch this market very carefully indeed. 

Key currency observations next week are further downward pressure on the USDX whilst the GBP and EUR should stiffen their resolves and hold steady given the recent sell-offs viz a viz the USD.

EUR/USD is trading on mixed signals at he moment between a range of 1.11 and 1.09 in a sideways channel and any breakout can take us to 1.14 key resistance on the upside and 1.06 key support on the downside. Latest CME COT data release as of 26 Feb show on the futures contract large specs are at 107,566 long and 154,423 short being 41% bullish in outlook and flat on the week with an overall neutral outlook at the moment on the EUR/ USD.

GBP/USD is consolidating at key support at 1.3800 and considered oversold for the moment. GBP has come under strains which has seen the currency pair slide from 1.52 this time last year to the current lows/ Further Brexit worries can quickly see a testing of the 1.3503 mark which was the 23/01/2009 low. Latest CME COT data release as of 26 Feb show on the futures contract large specs are at 35,479 long and 68,547 short with overall bullish outlook at a mere 34% but 2% up from last week. Oversold conditions may present buy opportunity as specs currently do not think the vote will go to the NO camp.

Gold is maintaining it's recent solid show of strength coming off sharply from the 1050 region achieved in Dec 2015. Currently the precious metal sits perched taking a look at the lofty 1390 mark. Current resistance lies at 1260 with support at 1190.

Crude Oil WTI though under respite is looking technically weak under the 200 day m.a at 47 USD. Support still stands at 28 USD with current resistance at 34 USD.


This coming weekend should set a very important guidelines  for the global economy in the shape of the G20 or Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Shanghai. Key topics cover economic growth amidst a climate of low interest rates and relatively cheap energy prices. 

Read on Bloomberg US Fed concern of a global economic slowdown:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/brainard-says-fed-rate-rises-may-be-slower-amid-global-headwinds 




and growing producer consense in energy to raise oil prises:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/oil-set-for-weekly-gain-as-russia-says-talks-with-iran-continue


Important data:


FX:


EUR/ USD   1.09377    -0.01248    -1.13%


USD/CHF   0.99655    +0.00944    +0.96%

USD/JPY   113.872    +1.038    +0.92%

CNY/ USD 0.152869  -  0.00024 -0.1%


GBP/USD  1.386500    -0.013525    -0.97%
 
AUD/ USD (commodity currency) 0.71313    -0.01064    -1.47%

USD/CAD (commodity currency) 1.351995    -0.000870    -0.06%

NZD/USD  (commodity currency) 0.663135    -0.013505    -2.00%


Fixed Income Markets:

US Federal Reserve -  +0.50%    

US 30 Day Fed Fund   99.570    -0.015    -0.02%   
US 2 year T-Notes    109.273438    -0.195313    -0.18%
US 10 year T-Notes  130.375000    -0.718750    -0.55%
ECB Base rate 0.050 % 
Chinese interest rate PBC     China     4.35 % 
Japanese interest rate (BoJ)    0.10 % 


Equities Markets:

Nikkei 16,188.41 + 229.63 48.07 (0.30%)
SSE Composite Index    2,767.21 +25.96 (0.95%)   
Hang Seng    19,364.15 + 475.40 (2.52%)
DAX   9,513.30 + 181.82 (1.95%)
FTSE 100   6,096.01  + 83.20 (1.38%)
DJIA  16,639.97 - 57.32 (0.34%)
 

Commodities Futures Cash:

Crude Oil WTI   32.85     -0.22 -0.67%
Gold 1173.460   1224.78     -12.55 -1.01%


Indicies:

USDX  98.119     +0.673 +0.87% 
VIX  21.50 + 0.6 - 1.24%

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures  and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is  being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve  profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of  any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily  indicative of future results.

CFTC  RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN  LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO  NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN  EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT,  IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED  TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE  DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE  THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR  TO THOSE SHOWN.

All  trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and  illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory  recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -   http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility  for the trading actions of its readers.


* European  Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that  cookies are used by Blogger  and Google, including use of Google  Analytics and AdSense  cookies and in reading material from this blog do  consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Weekly - 20th February 2016 - fears over Deutsche Bank

Forex Market Commentary  

Buy the rumor; sell the fact; Deutsche concerns.

What kills a good company more than anything is a rumour and when large corporates get into trouble like a ripple they influence equities markets bonds markets and also forex markets just to demonstrate the inter-connectivity of markets in this world today. The behemoth Deutsche bank is in trouble and there are fears that the mighty German bank can do a Lehmans; and just why not? The repercussions would be tremendous in the European bond markets and percolate over to the EUR/ USD just about as effectively as the Chinese demand for iron ore wiped off the share value of ore producers and let to a plunge in value of commodity currencies since 2014 such as the Aussie. Such events constantly remind us that while charts can give us technical insights into the past and some degree of probability over future outlook; the reality is that fundamentals drive prices and certainly a 50% drop in stock value in Deutsche Bank has an over-powering influence on German Bunds and the EUR/ USD. Devastating as the prospects maybe such a total collapse of one of the biggest banks in the world is highly unlikely given that Germany cannot afford to allow such a bankruptcy that could very well sink the Euro currency.
 
In the US strong labor markets and housing markets buoy the economy in spite of the over-all slow down in the Chinese economic engine. Gold bullion is looking solid given that the turmoil in China and Europe in 2015 has just about shaken off much of the dust. In the last 15 years gold has risen 290% and with strong economic factors in US markets it is highly unlikely that gold would sink this year below 1100 as the shiny metal inches up to explore the 1250 region against a backdrop of a probable 2 sets of 25 basis point hikes this year. Opec seems to be very optimistic in spite of the doom and gloom of the crude oil markets and agreements among the members on production cut backs can well see crude oil march over 40 Dollars with Opec seeking to hit 50 Dollars by end of 2016. Nobody wants 20 Dollars oil; everybody dies and it is not in the interest of producers; especially American producers whose benchmark costs of production are at 60 Dollars so where is the sense at producing at 60 and selling at 20? That would continue to help the US dollar maintain it's high rate viz a viz other currencies because global money managers will be looking for rock bottom bargain prices in the equities of US energy producers and thus the demand for USD whether fixed income products or equities will keep the strength of the USD going well through 2016. 



Important data:


FX:


EUR/ USD 1.11320    +0.00152    +0.14%   


USD/CHF  0.989945    -0.002045    -0.21%

USD/JPY  112.6385    -0.3200    -0.28%  

CNY/ USD 0.153330  + 0.00050 +0.1%


GBP/USD  1.440700    +0.007945    +0.55%
 
AUD/ USD (commodity currency) 0.714900    +0.000940    +0.13%

USD/CAD (commodity currency) 1.376950    +0.000575    +0.04%

NZD/USD  (commodity currency) 0.66325    +0.00020    +0.03%


Fixed Income Markets:

US Federal Reserve -  +0.50%    

US 30 Day Fed Fund  99.595    -0.005    -0.01%
US 2 year T-Notes 109.343750    109.367188    -0.070313    -0.06%
US 10 year T-Notes 130.906250    -0.015625    -0.01%
ECB Base rate 0.050 % 
Chinese interest rate PBC     China     4.35 % 
Japanese interest rate (BoJ)    0.10 % 


Equities Markets:

Nikkei 15,967.17 - 229.63 (1.42%)
SSE Composite Index    2,860.02 - 2.87 (0.10%)   
Hang Seng    19,285.50 - 77.58 (0.40%)
DAX   9,388.05 - 75.59 (0.80%)
FTSE 100   5,950.23 - 21.72 (0.36%)
DJIA  16,391.99 - 21.44 (0.13%)
 

Commodities Futures Cash:

Crude Oil WTI   31.99     -0.94 -2.87%
Gold 1173.460     1226.31     -0.44 -0.04%


Indicies:

USDX  96.590     -0.249 -0.32%
VIX  22.40 - 0.30 - 1.65%

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures  and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is  being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve  profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of  any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily  indicative of future results.

CFTC  RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN  LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO  NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN  EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT,  IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED  TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE  DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE  THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR  TO THOSE SHOWN.

All  trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and  illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory  recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -   http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility  for the trading actions of its readers.


* European  Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that  cookies are used by Blogger  and Google, including use of Google  Analytics and AdSense  cookies and in reading material from this blog do  consent to the use of such cookies

Forex Charts 19th Feb 2016

Forex interactive charts

Powered by ForexGoer

Forex charts for technical analysis


Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit service for free education on in the forex markets


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Weekly - 13th February 2016 - US bond prices have a good week

Forex Market Commentary  

US bonds rising in prices with lower yields.

The USD comes under further selling pressure across the board as gold confidently soars past the 1200 mark and crude oil settles in the low 30's. The lower interest rate expectations assisted the outlook on Wall Street as US equities fared well but across to Asia confidence in China is still at a low with Asian equities unable to rise in spite of a good showing in the Euro equities markets as a large target for Asian exports. Across the globe there is a sluggish feeling as the exuberance for the Dollar fades and central banks struggle to find wiggle room to encourage a quick boost to economies. Both Europe and Japan have demonstrated that negative interest rates and quantitative easing do not necessarily provide the impetus for economic growth as it did in the US economic model. That is a lesson the PBOC would be well advised to heed as there is no one model fits all solution. The PBOC sees no reason for the Yuan to decline any further as China seeks to stabilize after months of blood-letting in the troubled Chinese equities markets. In the bond markets falling yields in both the US and Euro markets is seeing the spreads between US Treasuries and Bunds tightening from 1.636 basis points to 1.589. This tightening on the Euro side is translating into a lid holding back the EUR/ USD from pushing through the 1.12 mark.



Interesting articles this week - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/deutsche-bank-to-buy-back-5-4-billion-bonds-in-euros-dollars 


and

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kuwait-oil-idUSKCN0VM0AK 
 


Important data:


FX:


EUR/ USD 1.125700    -0.005095    -0.45%


USD/CHF  0.97708    +0.00373    +0.38%

USD/JPY  116.8375    113.2260    +0.8260    +0.73%   

CNY/ USD 0.15204    -0.0009  -0.01%


GBP/USD  1.450255    1.450450    +0.003730    +0.26%
 
AUD/ USD (commodity currency) 0.71100    +0.00040    +0.06%

USD/CAD (commodity currency) 1.38500    -0.00785    -0.57% 

NZD/USD  (commodity currency) 0.662455    -0.006895    -1.04%  


Fixed Income Markets:

US Federal Reserve -  +0.50%    

US 30 Day Fed Fund  99.625    0.000    0.00%
US 2 year T-Notes 109.453125    -0.179688    -0.16%
US 10 year T-Notes 131.046875    -0.984375    -0.75%
ECB Base rate 0.050 % 
Chinese interest rate PBC     China     4.35 % 
Japanese interest rate (BoJ)    0.10 % 


Equities Markets:

Nikkei 14,952.61 - 760.78 -4.84%
SSE Composite Index    2,763.49 -17.53 -0.63%
Hang Seng    18,319.58 -226.22  -1.22%
DAX   8,967.51 + 214.64 +2.45%
FTSE 100    5,707.60  + 170.63 +3.08%
DJIA  15,973.84 +313.66 + 2.00%


Commodities Futures Cash:

Crude Oil WTI  31.33     +2.50 +8.32%
Gold 1173.460     1238.200     -0.570 -0.05%


Indicies:

USDX  95.981     +0.378 +0.49%
VIX  26.85 - 1.27 - 4.53%

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures  and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is  being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve  profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of  any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily  indicative of future results.

CFTC  RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN  LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO  NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN  EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT,  IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED  TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE  DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE  THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR  TO THOSE SHOWN.

All  trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and  illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory  recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -   http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility  for the trading actions of its readers.


* European  Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that  cookies are used by Blogger  and Google, including use of Google  Analytics and AdSense  cookies and in reading material from this blog do  consent to the use of such cookies