Forex Market Commentary
Buy the rumor; sell the fact; Deutsche concerns.
What kills a good company more than anything is a rumour and when large corporates get into trouble like a ripple they influence equities markets bonds markets and also forex markets just to demonstrate the inter-connectivity of markets in this world today. The behemoth Deutsche bank is in trouble and there are fears that the mighty German bank can do a Lehmans; and just why not? The repercussions would be tremendous in the European bond markets and percolate over to the EUR/ USD just about as effectively as the Chinese demand for iron ore wiped off the share value of ore producers and let to a plunge in value of commodity currencies since 2014 such as the Aussie. Such events constantly remind us that while charts can give us technical insights into the past and some degree of probability over future outlook; the reality is that fundamentals drive prices and certainly a 50% drop in stock value in Deutsche Bank has an over-powering influence on German Bunds and the EUR/ USD. Devastating as the prospects maybe such a total collapse of one of the biggest banks in the world is highly unlikely given that Germany cannot afford to allow such a bankruptcy that could very well sink the Euro currency.
In the US strong labor markets and housing markets buoy the economy in spite of the over-all slow down in the Chinese economic engine. Gold bullion is looking solid given that the turmoil in China and Europe in 2015 has just about shaken off much of the dust. In the last 15 years gold has risen 290% and with strong economic factors in US markets it is highly unlikely that gold would sink this year below 1100 as the shiny metal inches up to explore the 1250 region against a backdrop of a probable 2 sets of 25 basis point hikes this year. Opec seems to be very optimistic in spite of the doom and gloom of the crude oil markets and agreements among the members on production cut backs can well see crude oil march over 40 Dollars with Opec seeking to hit 50 Dollars by end of 2016. Nobody wants 20 Dollars oil; everybody dies and it is not in the interest of producers; especially American producers whose benchmark costs of production are at 60 Dollars so where is the sense at producing at 60 and selling at 20? That would continue to help the US dollar maintain it's high rate viz a viz other currencies because global money managers will be looking for rock bottom bargain prices in the equities of US energy producers and thus the demand for USD whether fixed income products or equities will keep the strength of the USD going well through 2016.
Important data:
FX:
EUR/ USD 1.11320 +0.00152 +0.14%
USD/CHF 0.989945 -0.002045 -0.21%
USD/JPY 112.6385 -0.3200 -0.28%
CNY/ USD 0.153330 + 0.00050 +0.1%
GBP/USD 1.440700 +0.007945 +0.55%
AUD/ USD (commodity currency) 0.714900 +0.000940 +0.13%
USD/CAD (commodity currency) 1.376950 +0.000575 +0.04%
NZD/USD (commodity currency) 0.66325 +0.00020 +0.03%
Fixed Income Markets:
US Federal Reserve - +0.50%
US 30 Day Fed Fund 99.595 -0.005 -0.01%
US 2 year T-Notes 109.343750 109.367188 -0.070313 -0.06%
US 10 year T-Notes 130.906250 -0.015625 -0.01%
ECB Base rate 0.050 %
Chinese interest rate PBC China 4.35 %
Japanese interest rate (BoJ) 0.10 %
Equities Markets:
Nikkei 15,967.17 - 229.63 (1.42%)
SSE Composite Index 2,860.02 - 2.87 (0.10%)
Hang Seng 19,285.50 - 77.58 (0.40%)
DAX 9,388.05 - 75.59 (0.80%)
FTSE 100 5,950.23 - 21.72 (0.36%)
DJIA 16,391.99 - 21.44 (0.13%)
Commodities Futures Cash:
Crude Oil WTI 31.99 -0.94 -2.87%
Gold 1173.460 1226.31 -0.44 -0.04%
Indicies:
USDX 96.590 -0.249 -0.32%
VIX 22.40 - 0.30 - 1.65%
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
