31st July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

What goes round comes back. markets today are so inter-connected that a hiccup in Shanghai could cause a major pneumonia in New York. The Fed took on a more hawkish tone with labor markets inching closer and closer to the 5% unemployment mark and core inflation running at 1.7%. But 2 major factors stood out to mute the reaction of Dollar traders to deny the kind of momentum push toe the 100 mark on the USDX and a challenge of the Maginot line of a defense at the 1.05 on the EUR/ USD.

1. Is it really all there about the US Economy and has the Fed over stated it's position and stretched ahead it's imagination to think the US economy stands poised to race ahead with stellar GDP growth?

See on Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/the-u-s-economy-s-top-speed-has-probably-been-overestimated-for-years 

2. Wither crude oil? Crude oil under pins everything that shapes commodity price inflation and consequentially indirectly affects GDP growth. The Saudis made the big push on production and engaged a price war at the close of last year and large specs drove the futures prices of WTI down down down. Then we hit rock bottom in the 40's this year and impressively crude oil climbed on the sentiment that China was going to lead the way and roar back against its current mundane 7% annual GDP growth. That didnt happen; Shanghai equities took a tumble and crude oil futures sunk once again to the nether regions of the 40's once again.

See on Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/01/us-oil-usa-hedgefunds-idUSKCN0Q52JD20150801 

 
Given points 1 and 2; where lies the fundamental basis for underlining the hawkish sentiment of a 50 basis point rate hike? Only a stellar Q3 can now guarantee a 25 basis points increment should unemployment tighten to 5% around Sept-Oct 15. But core inflation? Given that crude oil has sunk 15 Dollars in the last 3 weeks alone the basis for runaway inflation has all but vanished. hence the muted reaction of traders unwilling to make the kind of assault on the USDX 100 mark and the bastions of the EUR/ USD 1.05. Europe today is not the mess it was last August 2014 when uncertainty in the ECB and the Greek woes were at their highest and which consequentially led the large specs to assault the EUR/ USD and throw it down from its perch of 1.35 mark. Given the current China woes domino pushing crude oil down pushing expectations of US inflation down where lies the rational for a mighty Dollar appreciation hence the unwillingness of specs to push the EUR/ USD on the same kind of scale as last year.

Crude oil prices down, Dollar stabilizing sets the tone for a look at gold bullion. Specs pushed bullion down from 1150 to the 1090 region last few weeks. But Xmas 15 is just around the corner and Q4 retails sales should help underpin consumer demand for the precious metal. Gold net shorts in the market should be closing out soon with short covering so small traders watch out for that bounce and heavy defenses around the 1050 mark

See on Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/31/us-hedgefunds-paulson-gold-idUSKCN0Q52LL20150731 


Equities around the world were more or less flat with SSE Composite Index at 3,663.73 down 42.04 points (+1.13%),  Euro Stoxx50  3601.00  up 23 points (+0.64%) and  the Dow at 17689.86  or down 56.12 points (-0.32%) in a lack lustrous day.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
97.209     -0.278 -0.36% 
Support 95.830 Resistance 98.530
Forward 1 year - 98.344s.

EUR
1.098400     +0.004830 +0.44%
Support   1.08123      Resistance 1.12003
Forward 1 year - 1.10760s.  

Crude Oil  

46.81     -1.71 -3.53%

Support 45.56   Resistance  49.40
Forward 1 year - 53.50s.

Gold

1095.48     +10.53 +0.97%

Support  1,068.7     Resistance 1,115.5
Forward 1 year  -  1,101.4s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

30th July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

The Fed took on a hawkish tone today with its monthly but stated that the US economy was "nearly balanced". This was not the kind of call for action that large specs were anticipating having already pushed the EUR/ USD from 1.35 last year down to 1.05 where it trades now in the 1.10 range. Any signs of momentum yesterday were half-hearted at best which can be summed up best by the general lack of anxiety in the US equities markets as the Down slipped a mere 5 points to flat out the day's session at 17, 745.98. Effectively whilst the Fed tries to talk tough the market doesn't buy it and doesn't really see the justification for the official rate hike till the Q4 figures on GDP come out by Feb 2016. The Fed July statement once again emphasizes the necessity of watching labor market conditions and the target inflation rate of 2%. Whist the fed maintains that GDP is growing annually at 2% several economists are starting to cast doubts over this figure and maintain that reality is more likely to be a 1% growth rate for 2015.

Euro Stoxx50 posted modest gains of 17 points to come in at 3589.00 and the SSE Composite shaved a mere 335 points to close at 3671.74 to reinforce the market opinion that the fed won't boost rates this year.

Markets goes up and down and a clearing of a bubble presents an opportunity to buy. Some major funds already see the end of the distress in the Chinese equities markets:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-31/when-chinese-stocks-crash-this-top-ranked-fund-steps-in-to-buy

Grexit has come and gone, China tumbled and the dust seems to be settling into a period of consolidation and signs of weakness in the Euro economy are not there with the only factor of the ECB bond repurchase program being the unknown quantity as the ECB may choose to increase it's purchasing commitment. Still, the driving fundamentals are not there for the large specs to take note and make a dramatic big push as it did last year with the EUR/ USD and crude oil on the short side and gold bullion this month on the short side. 

Please turn to this very important article on Bloomberg today which may help you understand why large specs are not driving the USDX to the 100 mark.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/the-u-s-economy-s-top-speed-has-probably-been-overestimated-for-years 

Small traders need to be wary that the next 5 months to close the year will see half-hearted thrusts at the 1.05 level for the EUR/ USD and the 100 mark for the USDX. Given this scenario crude oil looks set to stay within the $45-55 channel on the upper end given that Q3 and Q4 should see a pick up in demand for crude oil. 

Read on Reuters today:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/30/us-russia-opec-idUSKCN0Q41OS20150730 

Bullion has nowhere to go on the back of a weak commodity market and may drift lower to the 1000 mark until Q4 where traditional gold sales sees a pick up in consumer demand. The Bloomberg Commodity Index lost some 9.8 percent in July, and that's the most since September 2011 with a new 13-year low.
   

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
97.414     -0.073 -0.09%
Support 96.831 Resistance 97.829
Forward 1 year - 97.346s.

EUR
1.09460     -0.00198 -0.18%
Support   1.09037      Resistance 1.10457
Forward 1 year - 1.10960s.  

Crude Oil  

48.23     -0.29 -0.59%

Support 51.32   Resistance  55.78
Forward 1 year - 55.31s.

Gold

1088.750     -7.025 -0.64%

Support  1,057.6     Resistance 1,114.8
Forward 1 year  -  1,090.7s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

29th July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

This week all eyes on the US fed and Q2 GDP data to give us some indication where the USD should be heading. An increase of 2.5% is expected by analysts which contrasts with the 0.2% contraction in Q1 due to weather problems. Certainly all the hawkish comments on rate hikes has given a boost to the USD. Nevertheless EUR/USD has stood its ground in spite of Grexit and China due to the resilience of the German and French economies under-pinning the Euro currency. Strong US GDP data could send the USDX back up to 98 to flirt with the 100 mark once again and the EUR/ USD towards the 1.05. However these marks at the moment seem to be insurmountable with the lack of trader conviction to launch a major assault of the position. EUR/USD could stumble briefly and then bounce once again providing a short window for swing traders. Chinese equities easing up lifts crude oil as WTI settles in a new $45-55 range.

See on Bloomberg as USD hits 4month highs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/blankfein-sees-strong-u-s-market-jolt-from-fed-rate-increase 

    

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
97.339    +0.173 +0.22%
Support 96.831 Resistance 97.829
Forward 1 year - 97.346s.

EUR/USD
1.09519    -0.00139  -0.13%
Support   1.09037      Resistance 1.10457
Forward 1 year - 1.10960s.  

Crude Oil  

48.77    -0.02 -0.04%

Support 51.32   Resistance  55.78
Forward 1 year - 55.31.

Gold

1085.850    -9.925 -0.91%

Support  1,057.6     Resistance 1,114.8
Forward 1 year  -  1,090.7s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

28th July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Everything that is today is everything that was reflected as of yesterday - - a trader's maxim - Pieter Bergli.

All things being equal; everything is as it should be.

How far down does the Euro currency go ? How far down goes crude oil? These are some of the pressing issues today in a trader's minds? Technical and fundamental interplay eventually settles price action where it should be for the day. The China equities tumble was already a given; the Dollar appreciation was already a long gone determination; an interest rate hike by the Fed a quantifiable factor; crude oil depreciation has already come and gone. But where is the new news to spark off a direction? The small trader must always be aware that though news events can drive markets awry it is the trend that is your friend and which way the winds of price action goes is for the astute to visualize and act upon.

Global stresses have not significantly pushed the Euro currency lower and given the strong resistance at 1.08 last week several specs have run for short covering allowing the EUR/ USD to float back up to the 1.10 region. The point is that ever since January this year, 2015, in spite of the continuous Greek saga, and some serious concerns about China and contagion in the global equities markets and bonds markets, the Euro STOXX50 has appreciated some 25%. That's a great number for equities investors looking for yield in a world where investment returns are always fickle. Given that the EUR/ USD has plunged from 1.35 last July 2014 to 1.11 today the cheaper Euro currency now provides more than sufficient fair value for equities as investors holding Dollars seek to take advantage of the EUR/ USD slide. Improving economic conditions in the two pillars of the Euro zone; France and Germany, warrant attention from investors as they seek to capitalize on European economic growth and increasing profits from it's listed corporations. Rock bottom interest rates in Europe and USA provide the stimulating conditions for European corporations to borrow domestically and internationally and invest and expand their markets. Thus large specs can see no further game action in the EUR/ USD since Greece will be settled, the ECB will efficiently undertake it's own Q.E without undermining the Euro bond markets and eventually the simmering bubble in China will ease down as bad money flushes out of the system to allow more sustainable and gentle growth in the future. Given that the ECB open market operations program has already been quantified, with a lower trading range for crude oil at the $45-55 range, tepid commodity inflation should help the fed to curtail any hawkish sentiment for 50 basis points increment. Therefore the Dollar push on the USDX has basically run out of steam. June US Durable Goods Orders came in at +3.4% vs forecast +3.2% but that failed to lift the Dollar given the context that traders are now realizing that their views on the Euro currency has been considerably and unduly pessimistic.

SSE closed modestly down at 3,649.10 down a mere 15 points to provide enough cheer for the Euro STOXX50 to climb 44 points to 3561.00 whilst the Dow climbed 189.68 points or +1.09% to come in at 17630.27. 


Read on Bloomberg the following report on the Global equities redress:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-signaling-s-p-500-rebound 

and on Reuters today Chinese markets are starting to calm:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/29/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0Q300U20150729 

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
96.589     -0.064 -0.08%

Support 93.653 Resistance 97.343
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.

EUR  
1.106375     -0.002055 -0.19%

Support   1.08430  Resistance 1.15030

Forward 1 year - 1.13770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

47.85     -0.13 -0.28%

Support 51.32   Resistance  55.78
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1095.485     +1.835 +0.17%

Support  1,165.5     Resistance 1,194.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,186.2 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.

* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies.
 

27th July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

EUR/USD showing considerable resilience pushing to the 1.11 mark in US session.

Euro equities suffered a knock on effect as sharp losses in Chinese equities trading saw the SSE Composite fall a massive 345 points or 8.45% in Monday's trading session. Euro STOXX50 fell 86 points to close at 3513.

US equities come down as a result of the Chinese rout. The Dow closed at 17440.59 dropping 127 points. See on Bloomberg: 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/u-s-index-futures-signal-stocks-to-extend-drop-allergan-jumps

USDX comes under considerable pressure and falls back on the 50 day moving average which forex traders watch very closely at the 96.00 mark. Technicians will note that the USDX price action has always been above the 50 day moving average from July 2014 to May 2015. USDX is currently trading a sideways channel around the 50 day moving average. Conversely the EUR/ USD since its drop from 1.35 last July 2014 had consistently demonstrated price action below the 50 day moving average up til may this year. The EUR/ USD also sits on its 50 day moving average at the 1.11 mark with sideways channel price action the more likely scenario for the remainder of the year should, all things be equal, US interest rates remain on course for only a 25 basis points official rate hike.


An interesting article on Bloomberg appears today raising concerns about Deflation? Yes, that's right:  Deflation; and a mere 3-4 weeks ago we were all becoming concerned that US core inflation should hit 2% by the end of Q3, currently sitting at 1.7%. What a difference a month makes and the finger points squarely at China. Slowing commodities demand, falling prices, particularly gold, and nervous equities markets on falling revenues now create the scenario for US interest rates to remain at 25 basis points hike only to avert further loss in confidence in the global credit markets. Read on Bloomberg here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/treasuries-are-stars-of-the-markets-as-traders-see-deflation

Given the nervous situation in China crude oil takes a tumble to the bottom end of our anticipated trading range for the remainder this year at $45-55 with WTI futures currently sitting way below the 50 day moving average at $57 and gold bullion also way below its 50 day moving average at 1160. Weaker global commodities prices translates into weaker corporate income and a deflationary trend due to lower production costs.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
96.524     -0.011 -0.01% 
Support 96.831 Resistance 97.829
Forward 1 year - 97.346s.

EUR  
1.108860     +0.008875 +0.81%

Support   1.09037      Resistance 1.10457
Forward 1 year - 1.10960s.

Crude Oil  

47.00     -0.39 -0.81%
Support 46.99   Resistance  49.61
Forward 1 year - 53.74s.

Gold

1094.435     -3.515 -0.32%
Support  1,057.6     Resistance 1,114.8
Forward 1 year  -  1,090.7s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.

 
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Forex Charts 25th July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

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Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

24th July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Gold has now broken below the 1.100 mark to reach new 5 year lows which is a far cry from the lofty heights of 1,900 in 2011.  What is very interesting this week is large spec movement on the short side of the bullion market. Given the volume of positions and the nature of hedge funds small traders should be aware that a push is about to appear very soon. Given hedge fund characteristics for quick profit we may see gold bullion fall to the 900 region in spectacular short fashio as with the last short action by large specs that occured last year in Q4 in the crude oil markets.

Please see on Bloomberg the report on the gold market and hedge funds - 

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-24/hedge-funds-hold-first-ever-net-short-position-in-gold


How much further will this bear market continue? All eyes to China once again and its thirst for commodities which drives the heart beat of inflation.

On the equities front the Dow ended the week rather poorly slumping to 17568.53  or   -163.39  points to demonstrate concern over the strength of the Greenback and Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 3579.00 at - 52 points with Shanghai's SSE Composite in at 4070.91 down 53 points. The Chinese markets are of particular concern; for example Apple has a full 50% of its revenue growth from China but when the Chinese equities markets start to tumble it's full effect can be felt across the globe to Wall Street as companies like Apple and IBM take a tumble. Add to a potential forecast of falling demand for crude oil and the market turmoil can be felt across the commodities markets from crude oil, slipping to the 48 Dollar mark and even gold that breached the 1100 mark on friday.

Coming back to currencies EUR/ USD has held up firm against all the negativity that Greece brings. Greek PM Tsipras is still struggling to contain dissension in his own party at austerity measures. But without the 86 billion Euros there is no hope for Greece. Even with USDX pushing towards the 98 mark the EUR/ USD holds its ground on the basis of the strength of the German and French economies and it's going to be tough for traders to push the USD to the 1.05 mark unless some other factor comes into the equation like the China equities crisis. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC outlook on interest rates on Wednesday for any key statements that may change trader sentiment with signs of hawks calling for a 50 bp increment given inflation at 1.7% and a tightening labor market with unemployment approaching 5%. On the EUR/ USD front traders would need to take note of what's happening in the bond markets especially within the backdrop of the ECB debt repurchase plan.

Please see on Bloomberg a discussion on a new Italian bonds issue which highlights  the future for European bond prices to go up thus putting pressure on yields thus putting pressure on its own Euro currency against all major pairs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-25/italy-s-bonds-spurred-by-investors-competing-amid-scant-supply 

On Reuters the following article appears explaining why crud eoil has fallen to its lowest price since march this year.

 

www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/24/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0PX06020150724 

 

"Crude was already lower on concerns about the global economy and the rig count added to the negativity," according to Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. With the current crisis of confidence in the Chinese markets crude traders are nervous about factory demand which contracted in July for the largest amount over the last 15 months.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
97.260     +0.064 +0.08%

Support 96.831 Resistance 97.829
Forward 1 year - 97.346s.

EUR  
1.09828     0.00000 0.00%

Support   1.09037      Resistance 1.10457

Forward 1 year - 1.10960s.

Crude Oil  

48.14     -0.37 -0.77%

Support 46.99   Resistance  49.61
Forward 1 year - 53.74s.

Gold

1099.130     +15.145 +1.38%

Support  1,057.6     Resistance 1,114.8

Forward 1 year  -  1,090.7s.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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