Forex Market Commentary
Game Changer - The 'No" vote in the Greek referendum is now going to become the first domino in a sequence of events that is going to change all international markets for the rest of this year with a high degree of probability. Like a ripple in the lake, for our concerns the 4 main pillars of this study - The USD, by virtue of being the 'international' currency of global choice, the 'Euro' being the second most trade-able currency, crude oil as a barometer of economic activity and gold as an economic store of value are all going to become affected as the Greek economy totters into utter chaos.
There isn't really much to salvage. Tsipras, the Greek PM, has "torn down the bridges" between Greece and Europe, Merkel's deputy chancellor, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel was quoted as saying in the Tagesspiegel newspaper. Greece has officially been declared in default last Friday by the European Financial Stability Facility, which holds a massive 144.6 billion euros ($160 billion) of Greek loans, so the chances of mediation with the new mandate may turn out to be a 'Pyrrhic' victory as Greece falls into economic poverty and despair .
Starting with the USD and the EUR all eyes are now on the Greek banks and if the ECB agrees this week to throw an emergency lifeline to bail out the already technically insolvent Greek banks that must remain closed for a further week to prevent a run on the banks by customers. If the ECB does not step in with emergency funds, in spite of the stance of the Greek government in negotiations with creditors, then we can expect large spec action to push the USDX to the 99 barrier threshold and the EUR should collapse to the 1.05 mark. that action would send chaos into the Euro equity market which will have to be defended by the ECB by increasing Q.E to drive interest rates lower which would then push the EUR lower to parity with USD. Flight to quality being US Treasuries and the German Bund and Gold bullion will be the order of the day so traders get ready for some large volatility by the end of this well as EUR/ USD may sink, USDX may rise, Gold may rise and crude oil collapse to the 50 Dollar mark as contagion spreads through large spec action. Most currency traders now expect the Grexit sooner than later; within the next 1-2 weeks and specs are ready to push the markets to capitalize until the ECB will eventually restore order and calm within the weeks ahead.
The Dow being the barometer of world equities markets is so far standing firm at the 17683.58 clearly unhappy at the resumption of Dollar strength.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
96.397 +0.139 +0.18%
96.397 +0.139 +0.18%
Support 93.653 Resistance 97.343
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.10339 -0.00011 -0.01%
1.10339 -0.00011 -0.01%
Support 1.08430 Resistance 1.15030
Forward 1 year - 1.13770. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
53.05 +0.52 +0.94%
Support 51.32 Resistance 55.78
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1167.660 -1.350 -0.12%
Support 1,165.5 Resistance 1,194.3
Forward 1 year - 1,186.2 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
