Wednesday 1 July 2015

1st July 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  




Greece never seems to get out of the spotlight as European equities on the equities front the DAX, CAC and FTSE make modest recoveries after all the drama and the European currency settles back down in familiar territory with the EUR/ USD now hovering on the 1.10 mark having surrendered all it's recent gains. The USD has climbed to a 3 week high as crude oil retreated to the 57 Dollar mark. The Dow climbed 138 points to close at 17757.91 following gains in European equities markets. But overall, US equities have had their worst quarter since 2012 due to the uncertainty over the fed interest rate outlook.

All eyes will be on today's ISM survey which should help the fed understand if it needs to become a little bit more hawkish on rate sentiment. NFP data for June is expected to slow down but overall demonstrate that the US economy is still headed in the right direction on hiring new labor.  But the main indicator the Fed will be watching is inflation at 2%. so long as the US economy can grow within inflationary targets the Fed would be reluctant to hike rates officially by 25 basis points.

An interesting discussion appears on Bloomberg today explaining why the Euro curency is refusing to buckle down to parity with the USD. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-01/why-the-euro-hasn-t-moved-toward-parity-amid-greek-crisis


and why are Chinese equities markets on the slide?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-02/chinese-stocks-fluctuate-in-volatile-trade-after-support-steps


Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.


USDX
US Dollar
96.224     -0.044 -0.06%
Support 93.653 Resistance 97.343
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.

EUR  
1.10682     +0.00157 +0.14%
Support   1.08430  Resistance 1.15030
Forward 1 year - 1.13770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  
57.06     +0.10 +0.18%
Support 57.32   Resistance  59.78
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.

Gold
1168.140     +0.190 +0.02%
Support  1,165.5     Resistance 1,194.3
Forward 1 year  -  1,186.2 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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