Forex Market Commentary
Everything that is today is everything that was reflected as of yesterday - - a trader's maxim - Pieter Bergli.
All things being equal; everything is as it should be.
How far down does the Euro currency go ? How far down goes crude oil? These are some of the pressing issues today in a trader's minds? Technical and fundamental interplay eventually settles price action where it should be for the day. The China equities tumble was already a given; the Dollar appreciation was already a long gone determination; an interest rate hike by the Fed a quantifiable factor; crude oil depreciation has already come and gone. But where is the new news to spark off a direction? The small trader must always be aware that though news events can drive markets awry it is the trend that is your friend and which way the winds of price action goes is for the astute to visualize and act upon.
Global stresses have not significantly pushed the Euro currency lower and given the strong resistance at 1.08 last week several specs have run for short covering allowing the EUR/ USD to float back up to the 1.10 region. The point is that ever since January this year, 2015, in spite of the continuous Greek saga, and some serious concerns about China and contagion in the global equities markets and bonds markets, the Euro STOXX50 has appreciated some 25%. That's a great number for equities investors looking for yield in a world where investment returns are always fickle. Given that the EUR/ USD has plunged from 1.35 last July 2014 to 1.11 today the cheaper Euro currency now provides more than sufficient fair value for equities as investors holding Dollars seek to take advantage of the EUR/ USD slide. Improving economic conditions in the two pillars of the Euro zone; France and Germany, warrant attention from investors as they seek to capitalize on European economic growth and increasing profits from it's listed corporations. Rock bottom interest rates in Europe and USA provide the stimulating conditions for European corporations to borrow domestically and internationally and invest and expand their markets. Thus large specs can see no further game action in the EUR/ USD since Greece will be settled, the ECB will efficiently undertake it's own Q.E without undermining the Euro bond markets and eventually the simmering bubble in China will ease down as bad money flushes out of the system to allow more sustainable and gentle growth in the future. Given that the ECB open market operations program has already been quantified, with a lower trading range for crude oil at the $45-55 range, tepid commodity inflation should help the fed to curtail any hawkish sentiment for 50 basis points increment. Therefore the Dollar push on the USDX has basically run out of steam. June US Durable Goods Orders came in at +3.4% vs forecast +3.2% but that failed to lift the Dollar given the context that traders are now realizing that their views on the Euro currency has been considerably and unduly pessimistic.
SSE closed modestly down at 3,649.10 down a mere 15 points to provide enough cheer for the Euro STOXX50 to climb 44 points to 3561.00 whilst the Dow climbed 189.68 points or +1.09% to come in at 17630.27.
Read on Bloomberg the following report on the Global equities redress:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-signaling-s-p-500-rebound
and on Reuters today Chinese markets are starting to calm:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/29/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0Q300U20150729
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
96.589 -0.064 -0.08%
96.589 -0.064 -0.08%
Support 93.653 Resistance 97.343
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.106375 -0.002055 -0.19%
1.106375 -0.002055 -0.19%
Support 1.08430 Resistance 1.15030
Forward 1 year - 1.13770. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
47.85 -0.13 -0.28%
Support 51.32 Resistance 55.78
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1095.485 +1.835 +0.17%
Support 1,165.5 Resistance 1,194.3
Forward 1 year - 1,186.2 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies.
