Forex market outlook for the week ahead:
This week is going to see a serious 'Let's get down to business' attitude from the Greek government. there's no where else to go and the Greek banks certainly cannot withstand a shock run on it's deposits. The Greek government must simply come to terms with the ECB and IMF. China policy makers are flexing strength and attempting to stabilize the equities market to allay domestic and international investor fears. Crude oil had the wobbles given Chinese equities scares and has recovered once again with a positive tone at the 53 mark on WTI.
The 4 main pillars of of our study within the setting of this week's calendar of economic reporting are as follows - The USD, by virtue of being the 'international' currency of global choice, the 'Euro' being the second most trade-able currency, crude oil as a barometer of economic activity and gold as an economic store of value
Different traders will employ different modes of analysis and different tools when pouring over economic calender releases.
Essentially there are 3 types of traders:
1. The Momentum trader that watches the fundamental key economic data releases and capitalizes on a sudden market reaction to the news release with the view to flat the trade in the same day session.
2. The Swing trader that uses the fundamental data momentum in hand with technical indicators to look for support and resistance tests that could become an extended 2-3 day reaction to a significant piece of news released and requires the holding of overnight positions.
3. The position trader that takes note of the fundamental news release with a few to finding greater or lesser importance to an existing position; or position entry with a view to add on new trades of phase out some or all existing trades within the framework of an overall strategy to work in hand with long term technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and 200, 50 day moving averages. time frames for trades could last from one to several weeks until goals for exit strategy are met.
This coming week select data reports to watch out for are the following:
Mon 13 -
CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (JUN) Forecast 1050.0B Previous 900.8B
CNY Trade Balance (JUN) Forecast $56.35B Previous $59.49B
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAY) Previous -0.002
GBP Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys
USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN) Forecast $40.5B
Tues 14 -
CNY Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) CNY (JUN) Forecast 0.007 Previous 0.078
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Previous 0.003
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN) Previous 0.1%
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Previous 0.009
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL) Previous 5370.0%
USD Advance Retail Sales (JUN) Forecast 0.003 Previous 1.2%
Wed 15 -
CNY GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) Forecast 6.9% Previous 7.0%
USD Yellen Delivers Semi-Annual Testimony to House/ Senate Financial Panel
Thu 16 -
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUL 16) Previous 0.1%
Fri 17 -
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN) Previous 1.7%
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P) Forecast 96.5 Previous 96.1
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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