30th June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Greece defaults on its obligation to meet an IMF payment of 1.7 billion Euros today Tuesday. This is the first time a developed European nation has defaulted to the IMF. Worse - Greece will ask its citizens on July 5th in a referendum if it should meet bond creditors offer of restructuring. Evidently nations can borrow and then walk away. So how did we get to this position? Quite simply we have to go back 15 years to where Greece joined the Euro currency and started to borrow cheap money largely thanks to the strength of the German economy and live beyond their means.

It came as no surprise that the markets didn't even over react. Initailly the brunt of displeasure came in the European markets. The Euro Stoxx 50 equity index dropped 4% and the 10 yr German Bund yields fell 9 bp to 0.92 percent. But in the USA, the Dow had a modest day climbing 23 points. The Euro currency also stood its ground. USDX climbed a little and both crude and oil stood there ground. If this was supposed to be the kind of dramatic news that moves markets and become a game changer then today certainly saw the most dramatic silence as most of the markets shrugged off the Grexit with all hopes of the best for Europe! in other words the market already expects bond holders to get stuffed by Greece and for Europe to steam ahead with a more coherent and disciplined basket of currencies. For 15 years the German government has literally carried the greek excess for the common good of the Euopean currency experiment and now everyone is getting tired of it.

So if Grexit didnt move the currency markets what will it take that could possibly form the new news that could take currencies into a direction?

1. A successful Q.E program of the ECB coupled with growth in the European economies and their equities markets leaves the potential for bond yields to rise. 

2. If the rate of economic growth in the European zone starts to pick up at a pace greater than the current US economic projection then we are going to see difference in the Bund and US Treasury yields narrow.

3. With China being the workhorse of the new global triumvirate of USA, Europe and Asia (China + Japan) the political need to keep the Chinese equity markets pumped up with cheap US credit becomes paramount in order to create consumer demand in both Europe and asia for American goods and services and keep American companies working it with grease and elbows.

4. As China and India grows the means for crude oil and commodities like iron ore and copper will become important and so commodity inflation will rear its head in modest guises next year. 

These 4 factors portray rising an increasing probability of demand for the Euro currency and not the US Dollar parity that was being speculated about in the press a year ago.

Although the EUR/ USD  is finding it tough to push towards the 1.15 at the moment the EUR/ USD is increasingly looking like an appreciable currency again with more odds for it to rise than to slip again back down to the 1.05 mark. Net shorts are diminishing weak by weak as large specs focus on bond differentials between the 2 economic areas as a sign for direction.  Any serious testing of the 1.15 will heavily depend upon US economic data releases for Q3.

Please read on Reuters today the following article on US oil production to amplify the growing output in crude oil as world demand rises.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/01/us-usa-crude-eia-idUSKCN0PB35Z20150701



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/americans-can-t-sell-stocks-fast-enough-as-rally-beats-outflows


Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
95.567     +0.038 +0.05%

Support 93.653 Resistance 97.343
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.

EUR  
1.114005     -0.005695 -0.51%

Support   1.08430  Resistance 1.15030

Forward 1 year - 1.13770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

58.77     -0.70 -1.20%

Support 57.32   Resistance  59.78
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1174.200     -3.625 -0.31%

Support  1,165.5     Resistance 1,194.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,186.2 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

29th June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

The crunch weekend came and went and the drama just got worse. IMF payments are due on tuesday and there is now no hope that Greece will meet its commitment to pay the IMF 1.7 billion Euros on Tuesday. Greece still believes it is doing the right thing though the ECB finally got weary and refused to bail out Greece with any more emergency funding. Greek banks immediately closed for this week fearing a run on the banks by the general public. with a referendum round the corner the country does not have the heart to begin to tackle its massive 380 billion Euro debt problem least of all sit with it's creditors for a constructive dialogue.

Euro equities took a dive. The Dow swooned a massive 350 points to close in at 17596.35. The Nasdaq lost 120 points to close at 4959.98. however in spite of the never ending wrangling, this is not really new news; this is not a 'black swan" event that could drive the market in a direction by surprise. The markets are sputtering in dismay, yes, but they will go on without Greece. Gold can lose its shine, oil can slip a little, but the demand for the Euro currency will increase because after all; getting rid of Greece might not be a bad thing after all for the Euro currency if one stray member cannot adhere to a unified binding set of rules. On July 5th Greece will decide if it will stay or leave the Euro currency.

In the mean time, of more serious concern for international investors is what is going on in the Chinese equity markets where fears of a bear market are mounting day by day. read on Bloomberg - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-chinese-stocks-here-s-what-11-top-analysts-have-to-say

and here's a only whiff of what contagion can look like when the Chinese do accidentally tumble over in spite of every effort the Chinese authorities will make to prop their equities markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/americans-can-t-sell-stocks-fast-enough-as-rally-beats-outflows


Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
95.116     +0.126 +0.16%

Support 93.653 Resistance 97.343
Forward 1 year - 95.943. Low growth positive line.

EUR  
1.121850     +0.020500 +1.86%

Support   1.08430  Resistance 1.15030

Forward 1 year - 1.13770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

58.15     -0.18 -0.30%

Support 57.32   Resistance  59.78
Forward 1 year - 61.31. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1179.505     -3.100 -0.26%

Support  1,165.5     Resistance 1,194.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,186.2 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

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Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment for education in the forex markets

Forex academia and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.

Forex Charts 27th June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

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Forex charts for technical analysis


Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit service for free education on in the forex markets


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.

25th June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

The crunch weekend has arrived. IMF payments are due on tuesday and once again Greece holds to ransom its European counterparts who have no choice but to kick the can down the road again with an inability to admit to it's own weaknesses and lack of political will to crack the whip against Greece. If Greece fails to pay its debt obligations whose fault does that become and why would traders invest in bonds that would have no hope in repayment? Fiscal irresponsibility in one nation must make the others suffer.


we have come to a pregnant pause all round with large specs unwilling to take positions and adopt a wait and see attitude on the Grexit drama for this weekend and 30th June. The Dow stopped falling for once as a mood of expectation around the markets propped up the EUR/USD and thin trading kept volatility at bay with all eyes upon the Euro ministers for this coming weekend. Failure to settle differences this weekend could send the EUR/USD back down to 1.05 and a resumption of the Bear market. The consequences of default with the IMF would be unimaginable.

Read on Bloomberg the heated politics of Greece and the announcement of a referendum on the debt issue - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/greece-s-tsipras-calls-july-5-referendum-on-new-bailout-plan

and an article on the American consumer who feels confidence in the resilience of the US economy -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/americans-say-they-re-just-fine-with-a-mediocre-economy




Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
95.399     +0.188 +0.24%

Support 93.362 Resistance 95.954
Forward 1 year - 96.233. Low growth positive line.

EUR  

Support   1.10513   Resistance 1.12733

Forward 1 year - 1.12770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

59.60    -0.10 -0.17%

Support 58.00   Resistance  61.36
Forward 1 year - 62.70. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1175.52     +1.22 +0.10%

Support  1,170.3     Resistance 1,200.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,175.8 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

24th June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Again the Dow took a tumble yesterday dropping 75 points to close at 17890.36 todday. This time in utter dismay that the Greeks could play such hardball with the EU ministers and IMF. So why would the US equities markets be affected by a nation that doesn't even have 2% of the EU combined GDP? The answer shows how close the US, EU and China and their economies are integrated today. if Greece defaults on its bond obligations to creditors the effect would mean a tightening of credit in the EU zone for a short while. That effect of higher rates would then knock EU economic growth and percolate down to EU retail sales. Higher unemployment means that less Euro citizens are likely to spend their disposable income on a MCDO or a KFC meal, or Coca Cola or even classy consumer brands like GE refrigerators or even Ford motor vehicles. Not only that, banking giants like Citibank would not be able to sell as many credit cards in Europe and airlines companies could suffer a knock on effect as crude prices sends jet fuel back up and consumer demand for tickets just drops. All round what happens in the Euro zone affects US corporate earnings. That is why what happens in the Euro Zone so affects US corporates and most of the Fortune 500 companies that are so integrated with European consumer markets today. sluggish economic performance in the EU and a down turn in China could send shivers to the US equities markets whose multinational conglomerates have two feet firmly planted in both regions for a sizable and countable flow of corporate earnings. Hence a sneeze in the EU over the Grexit can become a contagion flu in the US equities markets. So now after much heavy wrangling talks the adversaries have to reconvene on Saturday with a looming IMF payment to be made by Greece next week Tuesday and germany standing by yet again to cover the sins of Greek excesses.

USDX marches up again and the EUR takes a tumble. Crude oil drops a whole 2 dollars on the back of this deepening Euro zone crisis and Gold also takes a knock to the 1174 mark. traders are once again becoming nervous over the uncertainty. Either one way or another Greece has to settle; either pay up or refuse and let the markets go on with their reactions.

Read on Bloomberg today how tiny greece is affecting currency markets - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-25/tiny-greece-s-threat-to-currency-credibility-is-why-it-matters

 
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
95.237     +0.026 +0.03%

Support 93.362 Resistance 95.954
Forward 1 year - 96.233. Low growth positive line.

EUR  

1.1181     0.0000 0.00%

Support   1.10513   Resistance 1.12733

Forward 1 year - 1.12770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

59.65     -0.05 -0.08%

Support 58.00   Resistance  61.36
Forward 1 year - 62.70. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1174.850     -0.100 -0.01%

Support  1,170.3     Resistance 1,200.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,175.8 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

24th June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Today the EUR/USD broke below the 1.12 to signal that Dollar resistance is too strong above the 1.13 mark at the moment. 



The Dow took a tumble yesterday dropping 178 points to close at 17966.07. With the Greeks taking the Euro zone to the brink and threatening their equities markets, and a recent US EIA report on crude inventory stocks dropping there was little encouragement for equities as the prospect of higher interest rates and commodity inflation once again became an issue of contention.

On the Euro front the major differences remaining between Greece and its creditors remain unresolved. ministers plan to reconvene this Thursday. in deadlock with the IMF too Greece wants to increase taxes increases to achieve it's balanced budget, but the IMF wants more spending cuts to curtail the governments run away financing.  program. USDX stabilized at 95 and the EUR/USD at 1.112. U.S. crude stocks dropped for the 8th week in a row. Inventory now has dropped from last week by 4.9 million barrels to 462.99 million. This spells out to higher gasoline prices at the pump.

In the 4 major markets we analyze USDX, EUR/USD, crude oil and gold bullion, we have a tight range-bound channel with little opportunity at the moment for price discovery. We know that the USDX is slowing down and without the Greek hangover the EUR/USD could go through the 1.15. Crude oil is slowly creeping back up and gold bullion may increase if oil prices start to push inflationary pressure. This is no new news but already factored into pricing. What the market needs is new news to change trading sentiments.

Read on Reuters the report on rising US gasoline prices - 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-energy-eia-oil-idUSKBN0P41UH20150624 





and on Bloomberg today for more woe on European equities due to the Greek economic hostage crisis unfolding.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-25/greece-setting-tone-for-europe-stocks-like-it-s-2011-crisis-days


Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
95.211     -0.072 -0.09%

Support 93.362 Resistance 95.954
Forward 1 year - 96.233. Low growth positive line.

EUR  

1.120705     +0.000545 +0.05%

Support   1.10513   Resistance 1.12733

Forward 1 year - 1.12770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

60.28     +0.01 +0.02%

Support 58.00   Resistance  61.36
Forward 1 year - 62.70. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1177.650     +2.075 +0.18%

Support  1,170.3     Resistance 1,200.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,175.8 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers

23rd June 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Today the EUR/USD broke below the 1.12 to signal that Dollar resistance is too strong above the 1.13 mark at the moment. The Greeks have given their bond holders little to chew upon and now it is starting to sag traders senses with expectations of a correction towards the 1.09-10 range. Net shorts have been steadily declining in the futures open interest but still the overwhelming market bias is for a range bound Euro for the rest of 2015 trading as low as 1.05 on the low end and 1.13 on the upper end. Grexit has already been factored into prices so that does not become the main concern anymore. What is interesting is to watch the spread on the German Bund vs US Treasury because a narrowing of the spread as US interest rates slow and German rates gather pace, would provide further strength for the EUR to support any correction towards the 1.05 mark.

The US has cause for concern also as the housing market shows signs of life after a 7 year malaise. According to the latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index , U.S. investor confidence is now at a 7-year high and first time buyers are exhibiting confidence to take out mortgages on new house purchases. The Fed will be watching the housing sector very closely over the next few months for strengthening signals on top of the inflation barometer of 2%. That being said then higher yields on both the US and Euro fronts are going to signal trouble for bond investors as prices start to tumble. The Bund is now 85 basis points on the 10 year with the US at 73 basis points. With oil prices now firmly settled in the low 60's commodity price inflation will lead to retail inflation and thus spiral bond yields into a higher round of increments as demand for the two currencies increases. The Euro zone expects annual inflation to hit 1.6% by th end of the year.

Read on Bloomberg today the article on the Us housing sector to weigh in on Dollar strength

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/homebuilding-stocks-have-rallied-and-everyone-s-talking-about-one-key-trend


and on Reuters today comments by Kuwait oil minister why oil prices should steadily rise

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-oil-kuwait-prices-idUSKBN0P402Z20150624



Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
95.234     -0.172 -0.22%

Support 93.362 Resistance 95.954
Forward 1 year - 96.233. Low growth positive line.

EUR  

1.119550     +0.002845 +0.25%

Support   1.10513   Resistance 1.12733

Forward 1 year - 1.12770.  Low growth positive line

Crude Oil  

61.22     +0.21 +0.34%

Support 58.00   Resistance  61.36
Forward 1 year - 62.70. Low growth positive line.

Gold

1179.59     +2.66 +0.23%

Support  1,170.3     Resistance 1,200.3

Forward 1 year  -  1,175.8 Low growth line.




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers