Forex Market Commentary
The Dow lose 107 points monday and goes back up 113 points on Tuesday to reflect Wall Street jitters over the fed meeting on the 17th. from stocks to forex to bonds we arrive in this holding pattern like a pause before the next prophetic Fed announcement. On the dollar front it is a given that nothing new should appear int he final text from the Fed but eyes are looking for any tiny inkling for what may happen come December this year. All ese has been factored into today's pricing pretty much. How much more woe is there to tell from corporate America's CEO's on sluggish sales? How much more Greek anxiety can we whip up on the European front? For the Euro the June 18th meeting on Greek debt is seen as the end game for these protracted negotiations with more twists and chapters and pages than an ancient tragedy itself. Whilst Euro officials wrangle to the 11th hour the market is clearly unimpressed but given the recent showing of German economic recovery for the moment at least traders are holding off from an outright sell off of the Euro currency. Small traders should take note that this month the 17th and 18th June represented tremendous opportunities for volatility and rapid price movements and reversals. Whilst the slightest puff of smoke of a hawk on the Fed watch can send the Dollar up on the 17th, a conclusive ECB victory on the 18th can send the EUR/ USD through the 1.15 conclusively and emphatically whack the Dollar on the very next day! A USDX long at the 95 mark and EUR/USD short at the 1.13 on the 17th can become a major catastrophe the very next day if the Dollar reverses and the EUR climbs. or we have the opposite whipsaw scenario of a Dovish Fed sending the Dollar down on the 17th below the 94 on the USDX and to the 1.15 on the EUR/ USD and then the very next day on the 18th a nightmare ECB situation on the Greed debt can send the USDX soaring to 96 and beyond and EUR/USD back down below the 1.10. Day traders and momentum traders will have to take hedges and calculate trades very carefully given the explosive situation. Moreover a third scenario may see both the Dollar USDX and the EUR/USD go absolutely nowhere and again for another month we end up range-bound in a tight trading area.
Read on Bloomberg the analysis for fed watch on the 17th
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/fed-decision-day-guide-interest-rate-projections-gradual-pace
and again a very important reason why the World bank is crying for a moratorium which makes Fed Chair Yellen shudder at the implications of the following article on China
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/china-bubble-debate-turns-to-when-not-if-stocks-will-tumble
The whole world has got used to cheap money with the US Fed overseeing 18 trillion Dollars of debt that allowed Wall street CEO's to make merry with easy credit and across to the Chinese stock market where investors raced to buy stocks and push the markets to giddy heights. Should 25 basis points become the formality of the day, the bonds markets have already swooned and may swoon some more, but the world's stock markets may dramatically collapse. So The US has to borrow continuously for the sake of the world to see Euro land shake itself of debt and Chinese consumer spending augment new markets for US companies?
You can only kick the can so far down the road.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
94.915 -0.043 -0.06%
94.915 -0.043 -0.06%
Support 94.362 Resistance 96.452
Forward 1 year -95.877. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year -95.877. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.12570 +0.00021 +0.02%
Support 1.11037 Resistance 1.13977
Forward 1 year - 1.13490. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
60.49 +0.04 +0.07%
Support 59.21 Resistance 61.01
Forward 1 year - 62.46. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.46. Low growth positive line.
Gold
178.81 -1.94 -0.16%
Support 1,171.4 Resistance 1,187.6
Forward 1 year - 1,185.1 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
