Forex Market Commentary
Rumor has it that President Obama made a comment that the strong USD is hurting the US economy. The Whitehouse of course quickly denied the report. The Dow Jones is languishing and the US president has to make a comment? When the bonds markets get slaughtered on the same rationale wouldn't the US economy also be hurting if prices go down and rates go up? The President never made a comment when huge US bond funds got hurt. Read on Bloomberg for full analysis of the woes of the US bond markets here -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-09/bond-market-s-storm-finally-hits-junk-debt-as-buyers-flee-etfs
True enough exporters get hurt but the US economy is so much more that about exports to other nations therefore President Obama's comment appears completely out of touch. Then again glib politicians are wont to make irrelevant comments. So whats going on? If the President is right then why aren't Dollar bulls stampeding into the market to buy whatever Dollars it can find? already technical traders are talking of a Dollar top and the Fed is appearing more Dovish as the weeks go by. fed watchers can argue over percentage probabilities all over again but harrowingly the fault of the US economic engine and a driving Wall street is far more deeper and fundamental than looking for a scapegoat in the US Dollar. as Deutsche bank analysts pointed out yesterday on Bloomberg - we have almost a lost generation here as the credit crunch of 2008 hurt Wall street, Main Street and millenials perceptions of graduating and finding new jobs and the opportunity to invest in the traditional white picket fence. A strong currency does not translate into a hurting US economy. Just turn back in time to 1984 with a government under President Ronald Reagan and the artful Paul Volcker at the Fed. In the 1980's we saw the Goldilocks period of strong US economic growth coupled with strong currency. So nobody should be pointing the finger at the USD as a scapegoat for Wall Streets growing uncertainty.
Let's look at this article again because it is certainly alarming -
Read on Bloomberg this critical article on the US economy claiming the US has probably lost at least 7 years, moreover its economic malaise have led to poor unemployment prospects for new graduates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/deutsche-bank-the-economy-still-hasn-t-recovered-and-the-u-s-probably-lost-a-decade
and again on Bloomberg today read the damning verdict by JP Morgan as analysts pount the last 8 years of Democratic governance which has overseen the erosion of future full time employment prosdpects for fresh graduates in USA. This is not an article that points to a strong currency as the main item of concern but deep structural problems in firms inability to hire as they did a decade ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-09/jpmorgan-economist-get-ready-for-the-economy-to-produce-way-fewer-jobs-in-the-future
Oil climbed 2 dollars today on growing consensus that Opec will now unify and work to contract the supply market and under this context gold bullion just about manages to hold its shine and continues to trade for the moment in the 1150-1200 range without any strong technical basis for a big push on the upside.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
95.205 +0.019 +0.02%
95.205 +0.019 +0.02%
Support 94.861 Resistance 96.351
Forward 1 year -96.210. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year -96.210. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.129655 -0.002345 -0.21%
Support 1.11617 Resistance 1.14277
Forward 1 year - 1.13660. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
60.81 +0.67 +1.15%
Support 57.23 Resistance 62.13
Forward 1 year - 63.36. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 63.36. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1177.05 +1.00 +0.09%
Support 1,166.7 Resistance 1,187.7
Forward 1 year - 1,183.3 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
