Forex Market Commentary
The Federal Reserve policymakers forecast a possible one to two 25 basis points rate hikes later this year. But given that the 2015 GDP forecast was revised down to +1.8-2.0% range from +2.3-2.7% in March earlier this year, traders are left scratching their heads at the hawkish pep talk because quite clearly the economy is starting to drag. The instant reaction was more realistic assumption of the state of affairs of the economy as perceived by market traders. The Dow ended 33 points up perceiving the realism of cheap money for the remainder of this year, The USDX slipped slightly clearly in contrast to the Fed's hawkish perceptions and the EUR had nowhere else to go but float upwards against the USD. Crude oil of course is on the lift due to global logistics and bullion holds steady with no more reason to drift down to the 1150 with the possibilities of increased crude prices, commodity inflation and a weakening USD.
The FOMC’s assessment of the state of the economyin the statement said “that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors,” while in June, the statement read “that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter”; and in April, the statement said “the pace of job gains moderated,” while in June, the statement read “the pace of job gains picked up.”
Thus overall the best description suited for the Fed outlook would be - cautiously optimistic of economic growth. Given that Q3 may become the engine with the Summer economic boost the Fed still leaves room for the possibility of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points this year. Federal Reserve policymakers are in favor of raising rates with members in favor by a margin of 15-2.
Read further on Bloomberg how the futures markets have already prices 25 basis points hike but remain uncertain.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-17/the-main-question-investors-have-for-the-fed-when-will-the-second-rate-hike-come-
Also an interesting article appears on Reuters today on the Canadian oil industry on the rebound. with crude prices coming back up and not being riven up by speculators but by firm economic fundamentals, then much of the decimated production is being revamped as costs become within range of market prices.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/18/us-canada-crude-hedging-analysis-idUSKBN0OX0CU20150618
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
94.145 -0.151 -0.19%
94.145 -0.151 -0.19%
Support 94.362 Resistance 96.452
Forward 1 year -95.877. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year -95.877. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.133855 +0.008365 +0.74%
Support 1.11037 Resistance 1.13977
Forward 1 year - 1.13490. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
60.10 -0.23 -0.38%
Support 59.21 Resistance 61.01
Forward 1 year - 62.46. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.46. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1184.95 +4.20 +0.36%
Support 1,171.4 Resistance 1,187.6
Forward 1 year - 1,185.1 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
