Forex Market Commentary
Today the EUR/USD broke below the 1.12 to signal that Dollar resistance is too strong above the 1.13 mark at the moment. The Greeks have given their bond holders little to chew upon and now it is starting to sag traders senses with expectations of a correction towards the 1.09-10 range. Net shorts have been steadily declining in the futures open interest but still the overwhelming market bias is for a range bound Euro for the rest of 2015 trading as low as 1.05 on the low end and 1.13 on the upper end. Grexit has already been factored into prices so that does not become the main concern anymore. What is interesting is to watch the spread on the German Bund vs US Treasury because a narrowing of the spread as US interest rates slow and German rates gather pace, would provide further strength for the EUR to support any correction towards the 1.05 mark.
The US has cause for concern also as the housing market shows signs of life after a 7 year malaise. According to the latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index , U.S. investor confidence is now at a 7-year high and first time buyers are exhibiting confidence to take out mortgages on new house purchases. The Fed will be watching the housing sector very closely over the next few months for strengthening signals on top of the inflation barometer of 2%. That being said then higher yields on both the US and Euro fronts are going to signal trouble for bond investors as prices start to tumble. The Bund is now 85 basis points on the 10 year with the US at 73 basis points. With oil prices now firmly settled in the low 60's commodity price inflation will lead to retail inflation and thus spiral bond yields into a higher round of increments as demand for the two currencies increases. The Euro zone expects annual inflation to hit 1.6% by th end of the year.
Read on Bloomberg today the article on the Us housing sector to weigh in on Dollar strength
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/homebuilding-stocks-have-rallied-and-everyone-s-talking-about-one-key-trend
and on Reuters today comments by Kuwait oil minister why oil prices should steadily rise
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-oil-kuwait-prices-idUSKBN0P402Z20150624
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
95.234 -0.172 -0.22%
95.234 -0.172 -0.22%
Support 93.362 Resistance 95.954
Forward 1 year - 96.233. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 96.233. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.119550 +0.002845 +0.25%
Support 1.10513 Resistance 1.12733
Forward 1 year - 1.12770. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
61.22 +0.21 +0.34%
Support 58.00 Resistance 61.36
Forward 1 year - 62.70. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.70. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1179.59 +2.66 +0.23%
Support 1,170.3 Resistance 1,200.3
Forward 1 year - 1,175.8 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
