Forex Market Commentary
USD slips again on thin trading ahead of todays Beige Book. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development today has cut its global growth forecast for this year to 3.1%, which is a steep revision from the 3.7% growth scenario that it predicted for he world economy last October 2014. Concerns on an economic slowdown in US markets follows from the bank America outlook i mentioned yesterday on the US property sector and that didn't play well into the currency markets as across the board traders find little data boost for justifying a momentum trade on the USD. US Mortgage applications in the week ending May 29 had fallen by a massive 7.6% and that is a serious red flag that US consumers are losing confidence. Hence traders expectations of an FOMC decision in December this year rapidly eroding where at the beginning of the year all expectations were for a rate cut mid-year.
EUR on the rise as Euro debt once again becomes a palatable flavor with ECB discipline back at the helm with Greece and the QE program. Yields are gradually firming attracting strength ion demand for EUR. A push for the 115 is now seriously on the table with EUR longs building position. See report on Reuters -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/04/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0OK01P20150604
Crude Oil, analysts are now talking north of 70 even the 80 mark which makes an incredible about face from the earlier Citibank cry of 20's! Moreover, if this scenario works out then we will probably witness the greatest market manipulation of the century in how the Saudis forced production, forces prices down to cut out high cost production firms, in particualr the US shale industry, and then add to the fury with hedge fund speculation piling in to push momentum further down, only to consolidate and then cut production at the lower price of 50 to seize market share. By December this year 2015 and Saudi oil strategies will become classic textbook study in economics classes and the study of the firm and cost theories.
See on Reuters -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/04/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0OK04Y20150604
and which pummels more woe upon the precious metals market and in particular gold. Look to the key support area at the 1132 mark for testing in the weeks to come (07/11/2014 low).
EUR on the rise as Euro debt once again becomes a palatable flavor with ECB discipline back at the helm with Greece and the QE program. Yields are gradually firming attracting strength ion demand for EUR. A push for the 115 is now seriously on the table with EUR longs building position. See report on Reuters -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/04/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0OK01P20150604
Crude Oil, analysts are now talking north of 70 even the 80 mark which makes an incredible about face from the earlier Citibank cry of 20's! Moreover, if this scenario works out then we will probably witness the greatest market manipulation of the century in how the Saudis forced production, forces prices down to cut out high cost production firms, in particualr the US shale industry, and then add to the fury with hedge fund speculation piling in to push momentum further down, only to consolidate and then cut production at the lower price of 50 to seize market share. By December this year 2015 and Saudi oil strategies will become classic textbook study in economics classes and the study of the firm and cost theories.
See on Reuters -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/04/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0OK04Y20150604
and which pummels more woe upon the precious metals market and in particular gold. Look to the key support area at the 1132 mark for testing in the weeks to come (07/11/2014 low).
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
95.425 +0.054 +0.07%
95.425 +0.054 +0.07%
Support 94.426 Resistance 97.116
Forward 1 year - 96.549. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 96.549. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.126090 +0.009425 +0.84%
Support 1.10000 Resistance 1.14140
Forward 1 year - 1.13380. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
59.59 -0.05 -0.08%
Support 58.05 Resistance 62.23
Forward 1 year - 62.08. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.08. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1185.45 -9.05 -0.76%
Support 1,171.1 Resistance 1,200.7
Forward 1 year - 1,190.5 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
