Forex Market Commentary
The May US employment report showed that the US economy added net 280,000 jobs (expected was 221,000) and that the unemployment rate rose to 5.5%. Almost immediately the USDX jumped more than 1% gaining ground around 96.83 and then falling back slightly towards the close of session.it was a good number and a sign of relieft for Dollar longs. But equities didnt fare well and the bonds markets bore the brunt as traders began a sell off to mark the up tick in rate as prices would need to reflect the new expectation of a sooner rate increment. US Treasuries sold off sharply and the yield on the benchmark 10-year note climbed to a new year-to-date high above the mark 2.4%. Without a doubt this May NFPs figure was the strongest recorded jobs growth for all of 2015 and reminds traders that the seasonal weather problems earlier may translate into stronger employment data for Q2-3 with Summer around the corner. Bill Gross, iconic bonds trader now of Janus went on record as saying that this data release heralds the beginning of a new bear market in bonds. It's been a good 6 years in the bonds markets but sooner or later rates have to go up.
Read on Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/when-the-bond-bear-market-really-hits-the-way-people-talk-is-going-to-change
The EUR sank only a little surprisingly. With all the Greek pressure the EUR was able to stay the 1.10 mark vs USD. In fact net short Euro bets on the futures are still modestly shrinking as many specs offload positions. But large specs maintain significant short positions on the EUR/USD. Overall net shorts have trimmed with a 3.63% decrease from 171,740D futures to 165,512 contracts from last week and that represents about 1.45% of open interest;
Crude oil has only slightly dropped with the rise in USD and this is largely due to an expected contraction of supply which is affecting forward priced 6 -12 months out.
There's an interesting report on Reuters today on how the Saudi price initiative has altered the balance of power in the production world.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/01/opec-meeting-shale-kemp-idUSL5N0YN2Q620150601?feedType=RSS&feedName=everything&virtualBrandChannel=11563
Gold hit a low of around $1,166 per ounce, falling by about $9 after the better than expected May NFP and subsequent surge in USD.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
96.310 +0.732 +0.94%
96.310 +0.732 +0.94%
Support 94.470 Resistance 97.900
Forward 1 year -97.394. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year -97.394. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.1116 0.0000 0.00%
Support 1.11200 Resistance 1.13840
Forward 1 year - 1.12080. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
58.93 +0.93 +1.60%
Support 56.00 Resistance 60.80
Forward 1 year - 62.34. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.34. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1171.855 -5.575 -0.47%
Support 1,156.4 Resistance 1,183.0
Forward 1 year - 1,173.8 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
