Global FX Economy 29th Oct 2015. USD firm, bullion slides. Markets, news and analysis. E

Forex Market Commentary  

Bullion slips on USD strengthening.

Gold slides 10 Dollars plus on gathering strength round the USD. At 1140 a push to the 1200 mark is fading fast and key support at 1093 is being eyed as technically the shiny metal consolidates a downward bias after the recent surge of interest.

EUR/ USD is consolidating at 1.09 comfortably after ECB chief Draghi came out all guns blazing to talk down mounting pressure at 1.14. Positive German unemployment data today at 6.4% unemployment which helped that lifting sentiment. Resistance at 1.1387 and key support at 1.05. as large speculators mull over winding up position to flat out or rolling over positions the eventual likely outcome for the remainder this year will be a holding pattern on the spots in a tight 1.08 - 1.12 range. Given the Fed is looking hawkish over a December rate hike the bonds markets have already moved to factor in that price and US equities looks to consolidate at the Dow 17,000 level having accounted for a probable 25 basis increment in December. Such a move will be largely welcome given that the US economy is already at 5.1% unemployment and 1.9% inflation with the two key targets for rate review actually being met. the huff and puff of Wall Street is now over and CEO's routine fluster all but accounted for as a show that cannot prevent the inevitable. US rates must rise now 25 basis points. Consequently USDX reflects its pause at the 97 mark within touching distance of the magic 100 figure and crude oil cannot get any worse since the worst of inventory pile up has already been accounted for with WTi fair price at 45 mark and bid pressure mounting on the forward curve to reflect an increment of 5 dollars over the next 3-4 months..

Read on Bloomberg how the US Fed needs to listen more to what the Bonds markets are telling them:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/fed-officials-still-need-to-win-over-key-voter-the-bond-market

Read on Reuters how the oil giants have come to see their profits dwindle this year: 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/29/us-oil-results-idUSKCN0SN1XK20151029 

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
97.240     +0.025 +0.03% 
Support 94.213     Resistance 98.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.09821     +0.00033 +0.03%
Support   1.08173         Resistance 1.1393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

45.86     -0.20 -0.44%

Support 42.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1147.41     +0.36 +0.03%

Support  1,160.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Economy 28th Oct 2015. USD strong gains. Markets, news and analysis.

Forex Market Commentary  

That sinking feeling ahead for the EUR/ USD.

Wall Street certianly doesn't want it and the Fed playing lipservice to corporate USA doesn't want it but everybody wants that Greenback and we are heading into the Christmas closing with a strong note. usually large specs clear the books for year end but admittedly we  have just taken a pause on the long Dollar march to parity and the final hurrah of the retracement to the 1.18 on the EUR/ USD got shouted down by the ECB. The likely outcome is a holding pattern on the spots in a tight 1.08 - 1.12 range and a roll over of futures contracts to keep those top heavy shorts in play. USDX marched back up to 97 unopposed with the only real question if theres enough snuff to punch through the 100 mark before Christmas with enough time to consilidate; same scenario for the EUR/ USD shorts spot taking a keen look at the 1.05 horizon.

US equities looking buoyant plus 198 points to come in at 17779.52 on cheerful news the Fed wont act in November whilst crude oil WTI futures gain 2 dollars to settle at the 45 mark whilst gold bullion shaves 5 dollars down.
 
Read on Bloomberg how the Fed laying off rate hikes for now with traders now casting eyes at December 2015:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/u-s-future-advance-as-investors-speculate-on-fed-s-economy-view

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
97.601     -0.021 -0.03%
Support 94.213     Resistance 98.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.091685     -0.011800 -1.07%
Support   1.08173         Resistance 1.1393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

45.75    -0.19 -0.44%

Support 42.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1162.15     -4.20 -0.36%

Support  1,160.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Economy 27th Oct 2015. Wall Street nerves. Markets, news and analysis.

Forex Market Commentary  

Buy the rumor; sell the fact.

The old adage teaches us that gossip moves markets and reality snaps it back like a rubber band. The EUR/ USD upwards push over the last few weeks has all but come to a grinding halt as Euro equities are seen to fare just as bad as US equities when it comes to earnings and the role of the value of their respective currencies. Stark reality is that a strong Euro or a strong Dollar hurts domestic corporations that are geared to the export market like a Volkswagen or a General Electric. The Dow once again looks like it is tottering as the euphoria of a September rate slumber party dies down and nerves return to the fore. The Dow was down 41 points modestly to close at 17581.43 on the back of trader jitters. Read on Bloomberg how the jitters in the equities market is solidifying into a fact as corporate earnings slump:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-25/the-dollar-ate-our-profit-is-lament-of-delta-mattel-whirlpool

What is driving the Dollar spike the last couple of days is not only economic fundamentals of divergent economic cycles between the pair EuR/ USd but also the resurfacing once again of the rumor mill; this time with all eyes on the November FOMC. Will they wont they? 

Read on Bloomberg the analysis on the next rate discussion:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-27/fed-s-quest-to-keep-december-options-open-decision-day-guide 

The US economy has already reached the twin parameters for a rate hike: unemployment at 5% - currently 5.1% - and core inflation at 2% - currently 1.9%. It's got to be now or never. although new home sales look a little soft in the US markets; existing home sales are upwards and growing which suggests that American home owners are becoming increasingly upwardly mobile seeking to upgrade their style of living by purchasing a new home at about 20% a higher valuation than their existing status. that is the feel good factor. No matter what goes on on Wall street with corporate earnings home sales are strong and retail sales equally positive as consumers are looking to take advantage of growing disposable income. US consumers are saving more and spending more; that speaks volumes and is a clear signal to the Fed that a 25 basis rate hike will not do anything at all to hurt the growth of US economy.

EUR/ USD shorts in play if > 1.12 and longs in play if < 1.08

USDX longs at > 92 and shorts at > 98

Crude Oil WTi reflects excess in the market: logistics issues of over-production, full storage and needs to remain within the Dollar 40 -50 range bound rest of the year sans political news shocks.


Read on Reuters the crude oil price slide:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0SK02O20151026 

Gold : the push to 1200 was a false breakout and support around 1140 sought to consolidate a softening price.
 

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
96.990     +0.085 +0.11%       
Support 94.213     Resistance 97.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.10470     -0.00031 -0.03%
Support   1.09173         Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

43.36     +0.16 +0.37%

Support 42.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1167.210     +3.180 +0.27%

Support  1,160.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Economy 26th Oct 2015. Euro pain barrier. Markets, news and analysis.

Forex Market Commentary  

Euro weakens on soft PMI Data.

We can be taken and a confirmation now that the ECB has thrown down the gauntlet. we are now looking at a trading range between 1.12 to 1.08 and for the ECB the lower the EUR/ USD then the better.
The US economy has already shrugged off a strong USD and is at full employment however it remains to be seen how listed companies can cope should the USD rise another 10% against it's major trading partners. The Dow closed almost flat yesterday at the 17623.05   just  -23.65 -0.13% to reflect the growing underlining strength of US markets in stark contrast to European, Asian and Emerging markets. It remains to be seen in the new year which way large specs will push the USD and all probabilities are for a higher value and rate increment; which makes us look ahead at where the next 'carry trade' will appear ie. borrow in the depreciating currency, and certainly specs will be looking to take advantage of a robust USD should they be able to plot a less volatile forward yield curve for counter-party currencies to plot a carry trade. USDX holds at 96, crude oil slips to 43 on inventory pile up woes and gold just about holding at 1160 but fearful of further declines given the sudden turn around in the USD.


Read on Bloomberg how a strong Dollar is hurting US corporates who are struggling to adjust to further USD increment next year:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-25/the-dollar-ate-our-profit-is-lament-of-delta-mattel-whirlpool

and read on Reuters the crude oil price slide:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0SK02O20151026 

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
96.697     -0.121 -0.16%      
Support 94.213     Resistance 97.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.106325     +0.001315 +0.12%
Support   1.10173         Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

43.51     -0.47 -1.05%

Support 44.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1164.950     +0.920 +0.08%

Support  1,170.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Forex Charts 24th October 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex interactive charts

Powered by ForexGoer

Forex charts for technical analysis


Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit service for free education on in the forex markets


Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Economy 24th Oct 2015. Euro pain barrier. Markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

It's official; EUR/ USD 1.14 tops or else!

Well at least this week we came to see the ECB come out all guns blazing and making it's point over the pain threshold; the ECB will not accomodate a EUR/ USD above the 1.14 mark so that puts paid to any 50% retracement on the 1.34 - 1.05 move given that it would be highly improbable to witness a collapse in demand for the USD at this stage of their economic cycle. Any topside movement and the ECB will be sure to step up its open market operations of repurchase of securities to force pressure the EUR/ USD down to the more tolerable 1.10 mark. So traders seeking long entries need be wary every time a piece of news spikes the EUR/ USD.


        
Important data:

Equities: 
Asia:
Nikkei 225   18,825.30 + 389.43 (2.11%)
SSE Composite 3,412.43 + 43.69(1.30%)     
Hang Seng 23,151.94 + 306.57 (1.34%)

Europe: 
DAX 10,794.54 + 302.57(2.88%)
CAC 40 4,923.64 + 121.46(2.53%)

USA:
Dow 17,646.70 + 157.54(0.90%)  

Fixed Income Markets:
US Federal Reserve -  +0.25%    
ECB Base rate 0.050 % 
Chinese interest rate PBC     China     4.60 % 
Japanese interest rate (BoJ)    0.10 % 

Important moving averages:

USDX  above the 50 day m.at 95
EUR/ USD below the 50  day m.a at 1.13
Crude Oil WTI below the 50 day m.a. at 46.5
Gold above 50 day m.a. at 1140
US - 30 DAY FED FUND above 50 day m.a. at 99.85 
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES above 50 day m.a at 129.30
    

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
97.051    +0.647 +0.83%      
Support 95.848     Resistance 97.998
Forward 1 year - 97.67s.

EUR/ USD
1.10180
Support   1.09107        Resistance 1.11987
Forward 1 year - 1.11290s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

44.75     -0.63 -1.38%

Support 43.30 Resistance 46.40
Forward 1 year - 50.27s.

Gold

1164.280     -3.670 -0.31%

Support  1,146.1    Resistance 1,187.7
Forward 1 year  - 1,167.0s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Economy 22nd Oct 2015. Dow climbs. Markets, news and analysis.

Forex Market Commentary  

Dollar firms as Euro slips.

EUR/ USD slips over 300 pips in a significant 1 day collapse back down to the 1.10 mark and close to the 200 day moving average. Given yesterday's reaction of traders to strong US housing figures and the reluctance to continue short covering, coupled with ECB chief Draghi openly voicing his opinion that a lower EUR/ USD is what is needed to kick start the sluggish export sector, the EUR/ USD for now has failed to pierce the 1.15 mark consistently as the longs now run for cover. Continuous hinting of whatever it takes from the ECB by way of quantitative easing is starkly reminding traders of interest rate differentials and divergence given a robust US economy versus a stagnant European economy. Draghi has played down concerns that inflation has recently turned negative by pointing down to the drop in commodity prices. The Dow senses the feel good factor once again and climbs +320.55 +1.87% to close strongly at 17489.16. Crude oil and gold struggle to climb in the face of fresh buying across the board in the USD as emerging market currencies take the hardest hit with renewed Dollar strength.

Read on Bloomberg how the ECB comments sent a knock on effect on to Asian and US equities:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/draghi-sparks-euphoria-in-europe-s-markets-with-stimulus-hints

and




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/asian-stocks-join-global-advance-as-ecb-signals-stimulus-boost
 
Read on Reuters the crude oil war chest just sitting and waiting to ignite for the next big push up -

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/22/us-commodities-summit-m-a-idUSKCN0SG1U120151022 

and bullion longs beware:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/22/us-lbma-gold-conference-idUSKCN0SG1H320151022

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
96.348     -0.056 -0.07%     
Support 94.213     Resistance 97.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.108265     -0.026135 -2.30%
Support   1.10173         Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

45.55     +0.17 +0.38%

Support 44.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1166.225     +0.025 0.00%

Support  1,170.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies

Global FX Economy 21st Oct 2015. Markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Dollar firms.

They key note today is overall concern about sluggish Asia and Europe. As a consequence exporters of commodities have seen their currencies slide over the last few months and the news out of Japan today was not helpful at all. Japan posted its weakest export growth numbers in 13 months following the weakness in China which has seen its stock markets take a nosedive in recent weeks. This bad news coupled with the news of storage limit in US markets for oil has seen WTI fall to 45 dollars today and bullion retreating to the 1160 mark. There is an overall sense among currency traders that the PBOC hasn't really got a grip on the economy and policies aimed at a soft landing to restructure the next wave of economic growth. All this global bad news stands in contrast to the growth in US markets. Hence a firm bid for the Dollar today, particularly as the housing starts for September were very robust rising 6.5% m on m. A market near full economy translates into more people searching for homes to purchase particularly given the current low interest rate climate in US markets.

The EUR/ USD topside testing of the barriers of 1.1395/ 1450/ 1495 now waning hour by hour given the strong US housing figures.  A bearish bias now in play 1.1450 - 1.1265 for the next day trading session.

Read on Reuters the crude oil pull back - 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/21/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0SF06W20151021


and on Bloomberg given the FOMC Dovish outlook Treasuries soar:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/ten-year-treasuries-dearest-in-two-years-as-fed-liftoff-clouded

 

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
94.983     -0.065 -0.08%      
Support 94.213     Resistance 94.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.13472     -0.00158 -0.14%
Support   1.13173         Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

45.39     +0.19 +0.41%

Support 45.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1166.025    -12.485 -1.06%

Support  1,170.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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