Forex Market Commentary
USD weakness continues as traders cast doubts.
The overall sentiment is that expectations have overshot reality. classic - "Buy the rumour, sell the fact". Traders had all weekend to mull over the poor NFP data and wonder if this was a blip on the radar or a more serious red flag that insinuates that the level of optimism in the US juggernaut was as exaggerated as our erstwhile belief in the infallibility of the Chinese markets. Reality check going on now as traders realize across the board the Us economy is growing much slower than anticipated, in spite of low commodity prices, and that will affect the valuation of the USD. As a consequence the Dow has a field day rising 304 points to close at 16776.43 on the back of the assumption that bond markets will price themselves on the up tick.
A fast snapshot of USDX and EUR/ USD would read as follows:
1 year USDX
Oct 14 = 85
Mar 14 = 100
50% retracement = 92.5
May 14 USDX fell from the march peak back to the 92
Currently the USDX is now its slipping back to the 92.
1 year EUR/USD
Oct 14 1.34
Mar 15 1.05
50% retracement = 1.20
Currently EUR/ USD sliding back to Mar 15 low of 1.05.
Read on Bloomberg today
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/goldman-sachs-says-fed-may-delay-rate-increase-well-into-2016
In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
96.062 -0.018 -0.02%
Support 95.805 Resistance 96.895
Forward 1 year - 96.270s.
96.062 -0.018 -0.02%
Support 95.805 Resistance 96.895
Forward 1 year - 96.270s.
EUR/USD
1.118415 -0.000610 -0.05%
Support 1.11140 Resistance 1.12640
Forward 1 year - 1.14310s.
1.118415 -0.000610 -0.05%
Support 1.11140 Resistance 1.12640
Forward 1 year - 1.14310s.
Crude Oil WTI
46.29 +0.03 +0.07%
Support 43.02 Resistance 47.96
Forward 1 year - 44.76s.
Forward 1 year - 44.76s.
Gold
1136.225 -0.850 -0.07%
Forward 1 year - 1,133.2s.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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