Forex Market Commentary
In spite the dismal Q1 US GDP report most traders have gotten over the horror story contraction to put other elements into perspective. With ISM data and NFP due on the US economy traders have shrugged off last week poor data to push the USDX back up to the 97 mark. The last month May has seen a period of consolidation and pause after the Greenback had marched against virtually all currencies for a period of 12 months. Time out was well over due and excessive Dollar long positions were long over due for a technical correction. A key indicator to watch out for is the Fed Fund and Treasury futures which still point to a 25 basis point rate hike officially towards the end of this year. This perception has not changed in spite of the recent slew of poor economic data and USD traders will be looking to Treasuries for guidance and timing for the resumption of USD investment. But Bank of America make an interesting point yesterday on Bloomberg forecasting an eventual contraction in the US housing market which puts to test the theory that the US economy is set to launch a grand period of economic Renaissance. See on Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/u-s-home-prices-set-for-a-fall-beginning-in-2017-bofa-says
EUR/USD is on the slide in the wake of the yo-yo discussions and brinkmanship offered by Greece to its European counterparts. 105 is the crucial support area which if broken will allow the USD to challenge the parity mark. Euro zone CPI this week is expected to show growth which would signal rate increments as a support for the currency.
Crude oil is set to rise gradually even if the Greenback starts a second expansive wave of appreciation. Why? because market over-supply is now turning into under supply. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi in Vienna told reporters that he expects oil demand to pick up in the second half of 2015 as the global supply decreases in a change from the expansive output strategy that brought crude oil prices down to defend Saudi market share. See on reuters the following illuminating report why crude oil prices should steadily increase -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/01/us-opec-meeting-naimi-idUSKBN0OH37020150601
Gold is set to lose its lust re with the pending second wave of Greenback appreciation only just round the corner. Traders are now looking to the 1100 mark as key support.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/u-s-home-prices-set-for-a-fall-beginning-in-2017-bofa-says
EUR/USD is on the slide in the wake of the yo-yo discussions and brinkmanship offered by Greece to its European counterparts. 105 is the crucial support area which if broken will allow the USD to challenge the parity mark. Euro zone CPI this week is expected to show growth which would signal rate increments as a support for the currency.
Crude oil is set to rise gradually even if the Greenback starts a second expansive wave of appreciation. Why? because market over-supply is now turning into under supply. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi in Vienna told reporters that he expects oil demand to pick up in the second half of 2015 as the global supply decreases in a change from the expansive output strategy that brought crude oil prices down to defend Saudi market share. See on reuters the following illuminating report why crude oil prices should steadily increase -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/01/us-opec-meeting-naimi-idUSKBN0OH37020150601
Gold is set to lose its lust re with the pending second wave of Greenback appreciation only just round the corner. Traders are now looking to the 1100 mark as key support.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
97.444 +0.018 +0.02%
97.444 +0.018 +0.02%
Support 96.580 Resistance 98.086
Forward 1 year - 98.890. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 98.890. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.092850 -0.001265 -0.12%
Support 1.08417 Resistance 1.10297
Forward 1 year - 1.10210. Flat line.
Crude Oil
60.16 -0.04 -0.07%
Support 58.75 Resistance 61.37
Forward 1 year - 62.21. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.21. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1189.625 -1.525 -0.13%
Support 1,172.5 Resistance 1,211.9
Forward 1 year - 1,194.0 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
