Forex Market Commentary
June 'swoon' is alive and kicking. The Dow climbed 236 points to close at 18000.40 just to prove that the annual stock investors summer trepidations are an age old tradition hard to lose. That's about a gain of +1.33% on the Dow today. Equity bulls and bears have had a torrid time of it watching the Fed over the last 6 months pondering over the question - will they or wont they? so what goes down comes back up and vise versa as we trade this current channel of indecision where the Dow waivers between 16000 and 20000 and the 10yr Treasury at the 2% mark. and what does this all have to do with Forex? well, for starters interest rates tell us how cheap or expensive credit is and stock market companies need credit to grow and so to equities rates become important; equally bond holders want to know about rates moving up in case they see their prices go down in inverse relationship. Then to buy US stocks and bonds people need to buy the Dollar and so the forex markets become medium for the translation of interest rate position.
So the yo-yo continues and traders are coming into the summer with uncharacteristic indecision over rates scenarios. USD had a torrid time yesterday which spurred the Dow to climb on the hopes that cheap money would go on for much much longer. USDX slipping back into 94 mark territory with Greek plagues EUR/ USD rising thru the 1.13. European equities are rallying well hence the demand for the currency as investors see the signs of economic growth and stability appearing in the Euro zone. German bunds hit 1% yield for the first time since 2014 in expectation of inflationary pressure as a sign of economic growth. Crude oil WTI hits 61 to confound analysts who were smacking their lips with the idea of 30 dollars crude only 3 months ago and when the Dollar goes down gold can find a little bit of shine as the precious metal climbs back up to take a peep at the 1200 mark once again.
An interesting article appears on Reuters today speaking of the world economy and the need for the US fed to keep rates low so equities markets round the world, particularly in China can grow. Now isn't that very interesting? that goes to show how US rates and the USD underpin the entire global financial community -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/10/us-worldbank-economy-idUSKBN0OQ2JF20150610
And also heres a note for crude oil and why demand should pick up and so crude oil traders may yet see some more area of growth in the 60-70 range for the rest of the year, particularly if OPEc can cut back and stockpiles reduce globally whilst Us shale production is still reeling from the effects of the Q1 price fall and ensuing production cut backs -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/10/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0OO03C20150610
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
94.793 +0.180 +0.23%
94.793 +0.180 +0.23%
Support 94.861 Resistance 96.351
Forward 1 year -96.210. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year -96.210. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.13190 +0.00274 +0.24%
Support 1.11617 Resistance 1.14277
Forward 1 year - 1.13660. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
61.11 -0.32 -0.53%
Support 57.23 Resistance 62.13
Forward 1 year - 63.36. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 63.36. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1186.180 +9.730 +0.83%
Support 1,166.7 Resistance 1,187.7
Forward 1 year - 1,183.3 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
