Forex Market Commentary
Friday's NFP has failed to push the USD and if anything the USD has gone the reverse direction against expectations; that is to say, against short term expectations for in reality the trading crowd is not so convinced anymore that the US economy is going to lurch into electric growth. The Dow crashed again shaving 82 points to end the Monday session at 17766.55. The EUR/ UD sees the dollar being pushed back to the 1.13 with the EUR threatening to breech the 1.15 and make a massive technical breakout that should trigger a huge amount of Dollar stop losses which may compound into new EUR longs. A strong Euro zone CPI this week led German yields to spike and that has created a lot of fundamental support for the Euro currency with expectations of economic growth increasing in Euro zone. As long as the bad news on Greece can somehow abate the Euro currency has a strong indication or resiting any more slippage. However, much of the Dollar losses may be actual short covering bounce effects since the market is still overwhelmingly net short. So increased volatility ahead and choppy trading because by the time EUR/USD hits 1.15 expect a severe resistance.
Looking over US equities and ahead it would be really really interesting to see how the US retail figures come out on Thursday this week. McDonalds (MCD), the largest food outlet chain in the world, saw their sales down and that's a big warning. Already US based CEO's are increasingly becoming pessimistic. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index, which is a composite index of business expectations for the next six months ahead for sales, capital spending and employment, actually fell to 81.3 down from 90.8 in Q1. The long-term average of the index is 80.5.
Read on Bloomberg this critical article on the US economy claiming the US has probably lost at least 7 years, moreover its economic malaise have led to poor unemployment prospects for new graduates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/deutsche-bank-the-economy-still-hasn-t-recovered-and-the-u-s-probably-lost-a-decade
In the oil the increasing robustness of the Chinese economy is under-pinning a new sense of price growth. Cheap money has been fueling the Chinese stock markets to dizzying heights and in spite of the sluggish Euro zone and slow down of the US economy China is increasingly looking to itself and Asia to ramp up trade where lags happen with its 2 major Western counter-parts.
Read on Reuters today the report of continuous price growth expectation in the crude oil markets -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/09/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0OO03C20150609
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
94.995 -0.253 -0.33%
94.995 -0.253 -0.33%
Support 94.470 Resistance 97.900
Forward 1 year -97.394. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year -97.394. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.12955 +0.01981 +1.79%
Support 1.11200 Resistance 1.13840
Forward 1 year - 1.12080. Low growth positive line
Crude Oil
58.40 +0.26 +0.44%
Support 56.00 Resistance 60.80
Forward 1 year - 62.34. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 62.34. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1175.050 +0.950 +0.08%
Support 1,156.4 Resistance 1,183.0
Forward 1 year - 1,173.8 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
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Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
