Forex Market Commentary
2016, January over and already markers are in shape
Already the Yin and Yang tug of war of opposing forces is starting to show on last year's stellar performer the USD. Like an immutable law of gravity; what goes up surely must fall down and for every action there must be a reaction as market forces of bull and bear ride in oscillating waves. The trigger for this week's Dollar landslide was both the US purchasing manager indices (PMI) manufacturing and non-manufacturing coming in under all expectations and hinting that production is slowing down in the US economy. On the jobs front the NFP was very disappointing. after the last 3 months where over 250,000 were added to the employment pool January figures came in at a very dismal 151,000. Unemployment rate though has fallen to 4.9% which is the lowest since 2008.
In the futures markets for the EUR/ USD COT data this week reveals 96,012 long contracts vs 183,085 short or a 34% bullish bias as compared to a mere
26% bullish outlook for the Euro currency at the same time last week for large speculators. This hints that investors are now looking to Euro and possibly Japanese equities for some solid buying opportunities. China is a business model in transformation and the old rules no longer apply. Although China is grappling with problems in the domestic housing market and banking sector, the change of China from an export driven economy means that buyers will be looking over stocks selectively and eschewing traditional industrial investments to identify other new growth areas as the industrial section of the Chinese GDP comes down from about 50% to 40% over the next 5 years. Crude oil is faced with a glut for the next 2 quarters at least and curiously Iran, now coming online in the global markets; is expecting to invoice it's buyers in Euros in future thus reducing it's need for USD. Precious metals have come back to the fore with the retreat of USD with gold bullion now back within touching distance of the 1200 mark and having climbed 100 dollars this year.
Important data:
FX:
EUR/ USD 1.115795 -0.003665 -0.33%
USD/CHF 0.990895 -0.003205 -0.32%
USD/JPY 116.8375 +0.1475 +0.13%
CNY/ USD 0.15213 -0.00017 -0.01%
GBP/USD 1.450255 -0.006190 -0.43%
AUD/ USD (commodity currency) 0.70648 -0.01242 -1.73%
USD/CAD (commodity currency) 1.39152 +0.01852 +1.35%
NZD/USD (commodity currency) 0.662735 -0.006465 -0.97%
Fixed Income Markets:
US Federal Reserve - +0.50%
US 30 Day Fed Fund 99.600 0.000 0.00%
US 2 year T-Notes 109.398438 -0.031250 -0.03%
US 10 year T-Notes 130.453125 +0.187500 +0.14%
ECB Base rate 0.050 %
Chinese interest rate PBC China 4.35 %
Japanese interest rate (BoJ) 0.10 %
Equities Markets:
Nikkei 16,819.59 - 225.40 -1.32%
SSE Composite Index 2,763.49 +17.53 -0.63%%
Hang Seng 19,288.17 + 105.08 +0.55%%
DAX 9,286.23 - 107.13 -1.14%%
FTSE 100 5,848.06 - 50.70 -0.86%
DJIA 16,204.97 -211.61 -1.29%%
Commodities Futures Cash:
Crude Oil WTI 31.03 -0.69 -2.18%
Gold 1173.460 +17.505 +1.51%
Indicies:
USDX 96.951 +0.394 +0.51%
VIX 24.15 + 4.68 + 1.07%
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
