Forex Market Commentary
As expected across the board the USD is in retreat fending off mild and serious skirmishes. The woeful GDP news hit the wires and the specs made a move pouncing like wolves in the night. Banks followed with commercial orders on the change and then as buy stops got hit momentum on the EUR accumulated and ETF's became obligated to take new long positions. But as expected the EUR slammed into the 1.13 unable to push further for the weekend closing. that the EUR made so much rapid ground was largely due to the big specs making the push yesterday to seize the profit potential.
For example the Currency Shares Euro Currency Trust (FXE) was up 0.7% today Thursday after strengthening 3.6% over the past week alone. Usually ETF's follow the market action to reflect how speculators price in Forex.
He who dares wins.
This weekend will give traders some serious time out and reflections over the USD and the US economy and where it is going. Should the EUR/ USD not find any significant interest at the 1.13 barrier then we may see fresh grounds for the USD to slide back to the all important 1.1515 mark. There needs to be some more blood letting in the market until balance can be attained between the longs and the shorts. Fresh dollar longs should wait for a couple more key US indicators before deciding if the temporary retreat is going to become a more serious correction within the next 2 weeks. what is holding back the USD from a collapse is because of the strengthening demand for US Treasuries. See on Bloomberg the report on yield increases which strengthens the case for USD investment in the longer term when the current slew of bad sluggish US economic data can be shrugged off. the fundamentals of US yields are there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/trading-patterns-show-more-pain-for-gross-s-volatility-play
Interestingly, though crude oil rebounded strongly as the USD declined the precious metals did not fare well at all since for the long term most funds are in agreement that the current technical correction should only serve as a temporary pause before the USD marches ahead again since the bond market differentials serve as a reminder of USD long term strength, and now the sudden emergence of the prospect of growing commodity inflation.
For example the Currency Shares Euro Currency Trust (FXE) was up 0.7% today Thursday after strengthening 3.6% over the past week alone. Usually ETF's follow the market action to reflect how speculators price in Forex.
He who dares wins.
This weekend will give traders some serious time out and reflections over the USD and the US economy and where it is going. Should the EUR/ USD not find any significant interest at the 1.13 barrier then we may see fresh grounds for the USD to slide back to the all important 1.1515 mark. There needs to be some more blood letting in the market until balance can be attained between the longs and the shorts. Fresh dollar longs should wait for a couple more key US indicators before deciding if the temporary retreat is going to become a more serious correction within the next 2 weeks. what is holding back the USD from a collapse is because of the strengthening demand for US Treasuries. See on Bloomberg the report on yield increases which strengthens the case for USD investment in the longer term when the current slew of bad sluggish US economic data can be shrugged off. the fundamentals of US yields are there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/trading-patterns-show-more-pain-for-gross-s-volatility-play
Interestingly, though crude oil rebounded strongly as the USD declined the precious metals did not fare well at all since for the long term most funds are in agreement that the current technical correction should only serve as a temporary pause before the USD marches ahead again since the bond market differentials serve as a reminder of USD long term strength, and now the sudden emergence of the prospect of growing commodity inflation.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
94.895 +0.084 +0.11%
Support 93.838 Resistance 95.978
Forward 1 year - 96.600. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 96.600. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.120980 -0.000355 -0.03%
Support 1.10093 Resistance 1.14013
Forward 1 year - 1.13620. Low growth positive line.
Crude Oil
59.72 +0.09 +0.15%
Support 57.82 Resistance 60.76
Forward 1 year - 64.0. Medium growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 64.0. Medium growth positive line.
Gold
1182.60 -2.40 -0.20%
Support 1,157.2 Resistance 1,220.0
Forward 1 year - 1,188.1. Flat line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
