Forex Market Commentary
Potential major USD reversal is on the table now as weaker than expected US GDP data becomes the final piece in the picture needed to convince traders that the long trade game is now up. Every move has its cycle in time and we cant say that the warnings weren't there for the past few weeks. It's official - the US economy
grew at a very weak +0.2% in Q1 2015 in a totally non-inspiring data release that now gives the Dollar bulls an almighty cause to run for cover for the weeks ahead. Eur/ USD smashed through the 1.10 today and is currently trading in Asian session thursday at the 1.11 level and holding in thin Asian trading. Technicians will point to a significant breakout of price and direction and will be waiting to see what major price action lies ahead with the Euro session opening. dealer noise is fervently hitting the wires with talk of a push to the 1.13 mark this morning and with a dearth of Dollar news in support long players will have to run for short covering which may add to price increments which could then trigger automated buying orders if sell stops are hit around the 1.11 - 1.13. it been there for some time now. Net shorts on the USDX at 60%, Grexit factor diminished and a slew of plodding US data the last 8 weeks have all been sending red flags on the USD.
Read on bloomberg an explanation why the USD is falling in spite of bond market differentials.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-29/u-s-yields-are-rising-and-the-dollar-is-falling-what-gives-
That crude oil can hold at the 58 mark in am market of huge production volume and serious shortfall in storage is very significant should the USDX slide to the 90 mark. The slide in the USD will massively increase the Saudi chances of winning the crude oil price war, having engineered a price descent to kill off the US shale industry. Similarly the precious metals should receive large spec interest now that we have had a major confirmation in economic fundamentals to send the USD as a haven for investment into a short term retreat mode at least for the next 1-2 months till Q2 GDP figures are analyzed.
Small traders watch keenly for USD weakness and entry points as large specs will be looking for an opportunity to build momentum in the days ahead. Watch for the tell-tale footprints of the giants and where they are heading. All the cards are on the table indicating momentum is going to push the USD lower until all the weaker long shave been flushed out of the market. As William Pitt the Younger put it in 1806 - "Roll up that map we shan't be needing it for a while!" I can see USD fighting a continuous skirmish of rearguard defensive action all the way to Christmas 2015.
grew at a very weak +0.2% in Q1 2015 in a totally non-inspiring data release that now gives the Dollar bulls an almighty cause to run for cover for the weeks ahead. Eur/ USD smashed through the 1.10 today and is currently trading in Asian session thursday at the 1.11 level and holding in thin Asian trading. Technicians will point to a significant breakout of price and direction and will be waiting to see what major price action lies ahead with the Euro session opening. dealer noise is fervently hitting the wires with talk of a push to the 1.13 mark this morning and with a dearth of Dollar news in support long players will have to run for short covering which may add to price increments which could then trigger automated buying orders if sell stops are hit around the 1.11 - 1.13. it been there for some time now. Net shorts on the USDX at 60%, Grexit factor diminished and a slew of plodding US data the last 8 weeks have all been sending red flags on the USD.
Read on bloomberg an explanation why the USD is falling in spite of bond market differentials.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-29/u-s-yields-are-rising-and-the-dollar-is-falling-what-gives-
That crude oil can hold at the 58 mark in am market of huge production volume and serious shortfall in storage is very significant should the USDX slide to the 90 mark. The slide in the USD will massively increase the Saudi chances of winning the crude oil price war, having engineered a price descent to kill off the US shale industry. Similarly the precious metals should receive large spec interest now that we have had a major confirmation in economic fundamentals to send the USD as a haven for investment into a short term retreat mode at least for the next 1-2 months till Q2 GDP figures are analyzed.
Small traders watch keenly for USD weakness and entry points as large specs will be looking for an opportunity to build momentum in the days ahead. Watch for the tell-tale footprints of the giants and where they are heading. All the cards are on the table indicating momentum is going to push the USD lower until all the weaker long shave been flushed out of the market. As William Pitt the Younger put it in 1806 - "Roll up that map we shan't be needing it for a while!" I can see USD fighting a continuous skirmish of rearguard defensive action all the way to Christmas 2015.
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
95.174 -0.034 -0.04%
Support 93.911 Resistance 97.001
EUR
1.11129 -0.00109 -0.10%
Support 1.08627 Resistance 1.13227
Crude Oil
58.73 +0.15 +0.26%
Support 55.36 Resistance 60.94
Gold
1204.150 -0.920 -0.08%
Support 1,195.3 Resistance 1,220.9
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
