23rd April 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Technically speaking, the waning support for USD is pushing the EUR towards the 1.12 slowly and steadily. It is not as if USD is going to all of a sudden dramatically collapse. what we have here are the lighter shorts being cleared out one by one until a balance can be restored in the market for EUR/ USD. Noting the recent drip of sluggish US economic data reports and given the dearth of positive news as well as the bond differentials already factored into price USd has to pull back and yield ground. But this is not going to be easy as between 1.10 and 1.12 there are massive shorts in the market and it would take significant Euro data to overpower the 1.12 position. Buoyancy in the Euro equity markets alone is not sufficient demonstration of valid grounds for speculators to have a push at the 1.12 mark. That would take at least a quarter of strong repetitive economic growth data to roll back the shorts in the market and confirm a reversal and technical break out beyond. What we are really looking at here is a temporary lull due to lack of Dollar news. any failed breach of the 1.10 can send the EUR crashing back down to parity with a new wave of freshly entered shorts at any botched attempt. Long term most analysts are bearish on the EUR/ USD prospects. In the mean time volatility on the EUR/ USD can send the pair anywhere between 1.05 and 1.09 in the short term at an instant.

See on Bloomberg - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/the-u-s-economy-hasn-t-disappointed-analysts-this-much-since-the-great-recession

Crude oil  is consistently impressing holding the mark at the 55-60 Dollar range sideways trading indicating an evening out between physical demand and supply at a higher price than what specs had anticipated. This fact is concerning the US Fed to rigorously monitor the effects of crude prices on inflation. Finally last month in March China surpassed India as the largest buyer of gold with 70 billion US Dollars. It would take a serious test of the 1,210 Dollar to gather spec interest to push bullion upwards.

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

97.409     +0.098 +0.13%

Support 96.501  Resistance  99.121

EUR  

1.080905     +0.011420 +1.07%

Support   1.06047  Resistance 1.09667

Crude Oil  

57.47     -0.27 -0.48%

Support   54.65   Resistance 59.95

Gold

1193.400     +6.250 +0.53%

Support  1,178.0       Resistance 1,205.6

        




Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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