USD gets slammed real hard and the Dow soars with delight +117.61 +0.66%.
Ugly is not even the word to describe Good Friday data release. we were expecting 245k but actual was 126k with unemployment unchanged at 5.5%. immediately morning the USD swooned across the board and the fall-out may not yet be quite clear till we see how speculative USD longs run for cover. EUR marched on to the 1.10 and its not quite clear how with massive shorts in the market the USD can cope? One thing is for sure is that the weaker shorts are going to get stopped out at the 1.10 and that can trigger a fair amount of EUR buying pressure which will then ignite short covering at 1.110 and so we can USD weakness plus short covering as 2 factors that may push the EUR through the 1.11 mark this weak. Clearly if ever there was a signal to set the tone then the NFP may have done a lot of damage already and set the tone for the next 3 weeks ahead. Long term bond differentials are in play yes but if traders will start shorter term covering and sell stops get triggered we may see a larger technical correction in the currency market on the USD this and next week. This is why options are needed in volatile markets where directional sense can change and turn on a dime. The weaker shorts at the 108 on the EUR are already wiped out and now specs are going to have a nerve wracking week ahead of them because if there's going to be a correction its going to happen now and not later next week. USD off the ropes, down on the floor but counting on a rebound off its wobbly knees in the longer term next month. Cude and gold also soar in the wake of Dollar weakness.
Where are we going on the fed watch and the golden question of rate hikes? Clearly the NFP has sent a strong message to the doves. Read the full report here on Bloomberg from Mohamed A. El-Erian
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-03/mohamed-el-erian-eight-takeaways-from-the-march-jobs-report
USDX
97.048 +0.356 +0.46%
Support 96.004 Resistance 97.934
EUR
1.09271 -0.00501 -0.46%
Support 1.08577 Resistance 1.11117
Crude Oil
51.87 -0.27 -0.55%
Support 48.51 Resistance 54.05
Gold
1214.840 -1.660 -0.14%
Support 1,206.7 Resistance 1,230.5
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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