Forex Market Commentary
The Dow has a good week closing above the 1700.
At the heart of everything really is the Fed outlook that decides to hold on official interest rates despite core inflation creeping up to 1.9% year on year and the labor market ever tight with unemployment very close to the model 'Full Employment' indicator at 5%. Why? Because the Dollar being the most important currency in the world; needs Asia and Europe to revive above the current stuttering stagnation to increase manufacturing, exports, productivity and ultimately realizing that cherished prize of increasing consumer per capita income in these 2 zones which bounces back to increased demands for US exports. in short: the USA is investing in the world so that Us goods and services can be bought. But the costs? Soaring public debt, short run deficit financing with the prospect of building a global infrastructure for US corporates to thrive. So, Eur/ USD holds at the 1.13 on short covering this week much to the consternation of the ECB that want the pair down. USDX inching down to the 92 mark. Crude oil holds well at 47 and may push consistently above the 50 mark by December as peak Asian sales gets under way and gold bullion is probing the 1200 mark whilst USD loses ground as overbought. Slowly the Euro currency futures position is becoming more bullish. On the latest COT charts large specs have increased their long bets to 71, 132 contracts vs 65,410 the previous week. Large specs have also reduced their shorts outstanding this week from 154,220 to 151,708 thus lifting the overall bullish sentiment from 30% last week to 32%.
Important data:
Equities:
Asia:
Nikkei 225 18,291.80 + 194.90 (+1.08%)
SSE Composite 3,391.35 +53.28 (+1.60%)
Hang Seng 23,067.37 + 179.20 (+0.78%)
Europe:
DAX 10,104.43 + 39.63 (+0.39%)
CAC 40 4,702.79 + 27.50 (+0.59%)
USA:
Dow 17,215.97 + 74.22 (0.43%)
Fixed Income Markets:
US Federal Reserve - +0.25%
ECB Base rate 0.050 %
Chinese interest rate PBC China 4.60 %
Japanese interest rate (BoJ) 0.10 %
Important moving averages:
USDX below the 50 day m.at 95.5
EUR/ USD above the 50 day m.a at 1.12.5
Crude Oil WTI above the 50 day m.a. at 45.5
Gold above 50 day m.a. at 1140
US - 30 DAY FED FUND above 50 day m.a. at 99.85
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES above 50 day m.a at 129.30
In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
94.719 +0.281 +0.36%
Support 94.213 Resistance 94.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.
94.719 +0.281 +0.36%
Support 94.213 Resistance 94.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.
EUR/ USD
1.135215 0.000000 0.00%
Support 1.13173 Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.
1.135215 0.000000 0.00%
Support 1.13173 Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.
Crude Oil WTI
47.70 +0.83 +1.75%
Support 45.63 Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.
Gold
1177.02 0.00 0.00%
Forward 1 year - 1,186.5s.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
