Global FX Economy 21st Oct 2015. Markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Dollar firms.

They key note today is overall concern about sluggish Asia and Europe. As a consequence exporters of commodities have seen their currencies slide over the last few months and the news out of Japan today was not helpful at all. Japan posted its weakest export growth numbers in 13 months following the weakness in China which has seen its stock markets take a nosedive in recent weeks. This bad news coupled with the news of storage limit in US markets for oil has seen WTI fall to 45 dollars today and bullion retreating to the 1160 mark. There is an overall sense among currency traders that the PBOC hasn't really got a grip on the economy and policies aimed at a soft landing to restructure the next wave of economic growth. All this global bad news stands in contrast to the growth in US markets. Hence a firm bid for the Dollar today, particularly as the housing starts for September were very robust rising 6.5% m on m. A market near full economy translates into more people searching for homes to purchase particularly given the current low interest rate climate in US markets.

The EUR/ USD topside testing of the barriers of 1.1395/ 1450/ 1495 now waning hour by hour given the strong US housing figures.  A bearish bias now in play 1.1450 - 1.1265 for the next day trading session.

Read on Reuters the crude oil pull back - 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/21/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0SF06W20151021


and on Bloomberg given the FOMC Dovish outlook Treasuries soar:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/ten-year-treasuries-dearest-in-two-years-as-fed-liftoff-clouded

 

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
94.983     -0.065 -0.08%      
Support 94.213     Resistance 94.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.13472     -0.00158 -0.14%
Support   1.13173         Resistance 1.14393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

45.39     +0.19 +0.41%

Support 45.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1166.025    -12.485 -1.06%

Support  1,170.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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