Forex Market Commentary
The G20 Summit was held in Shanghai, China.
The purpose of the G20 or Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Shanghai was to set important guidelines for the global economy for 2016. Key topics to be covered were economic growth amid a climate of low interest rates and relatively cheap energy prices. However, the topic which eventually came to dominate the meeting was of course the growing important of the Brexit. Eventually, the 2 day meeting G20 in China was cynically regarded by many as a complete waste of time. The most important closing comment to come out of the group was a strong statement over a potential Brexit and which was considered to be of huge concern with deep repercussions to the global economy. Collectively the 20 Finance ministers from the world's leading economies warned of a huge "shock" to the global economy if the UK leaves the EU.
In the USA this week January housing numbers are raising concerns. Housing Starts, New Home Sales and Building Applications all slipped in January. But US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49. 5 points, which is a slight contraction, but above the estimate of 48.5 points thus sending to traders mixed signals of the strengths of the US economy. NFP data showed impressive strength. Data today showed that employers added more workers in February than had been anticipated. The 242,000 gain in February 2016 comes after followed a 172,000 rise in January that was larger than previously estimated. The jobless rate is still at 4.9 %. US equities enjoyed the day with the Dow closing over 17,000. The S&P 500 made gains for a 4th consecutive session and showed the most sustainable strength since December 2015. It is interesting to note that the VIX volatility for the last 4 weeks has dropped from 28 to 18.50 illustrating the decline in stock volatility and underlying the strength of US equities. Crude WTI is now trading at $36 a barrel and gold bullion sustains at the 1250's.
EUR/USD is slipping with traders fearing that the ECB will expand their negative rates policy to weaken the Euro currency further. EUR/USD is trading in thin volumes ahead of a critical march 10th where we expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 10bp to -50bp. Resistance at 1.0905 and support at 1.0810. We are watching the EUR/ USD in anticipation of volatility prior to the UK referendum.
GBP/USD has consolidates against its long term decline. A break to the upside is on the table with an eye to the 1.44 mark. Support at 1.3836. With a No vote on the table and reminder from the G20 speculators will be looking to the GBP for trading opportunities.
Gold maintains an upside momentum consolidating at the 1250 and now eyeing resistance at 1308.
Crude oil WTI is consolidating at 32 Dollars with firm support with an expected challenge at 36 this month
Read on Bloomberg this week on the US equities market and bullion:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-04/u-s-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-employment-data
and
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-03/gold-snaps-back-to-bull-market-as-prices-surge-on-haven-demand
Important data:
FX:
EUR/ USD 1.1005 0.0000 + 0.00%
USD/CHF 0.99315 0.00000 0.00%
USD/JPY 112.6385 -0.3200 -0.28%
CNY/ USD 0.153330 + 0.00050 +0.1%
GBP/USD 1.4227 +0.007945 +0.55%
AUD/ USD (commodity currency) 0.74377 +0.000940 +0.13%
USD/CAD (commodity currency) 1.3314 +0.000575 +0.04%
NZD/USD (commodity currency) 0.681850 +0.00020 +0.03%
Fixed Income Markets:
US Federal Reserve - +0.50%
US 30 Day Fed Fund 99.625 -0.005 -0.01%
US 2 year T-Notes 109.109375 -0.054688 -0.05%
US 10 year T-Notes 129.50000 -0.375000 -0.29%
ECB Base rate 0.050 %
Chinese interest rate PBC China 4.35 %
Japanese interest rate (BoJ) 0.10 %
Equities Markets:
Nikkei 17,014.78 +54.62 (0.32%)
SSE Composite Index 2,874.15 + 14.39 (0.50%)
Hang Seng 20,176.70 +234.94 (1.18%)
DAX 9,824.17 + 72.25 (0.74%)
FTSE 100 6,199.43 + 68.97 (1.13%)
DJIA 17,006.77 + 62.87 (0.37%)
Commodities Futures Cash:
Crude Oil WTI 35.92 +1.68 +4.62%
Gold 1173.460 1259.055 0.000 0.00%
Indicies:
USDX 97.246 -0.403 -0.52%
VIX 18.95 + 0.63 +3.41%
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets. Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
