Forex Market Commentary
There are all types of traders and most fail!
If trading is a zero sum and that there is a lose for every winner then why doesn't the number of losers match the number of winners on a head to head basis? this would be an entirely erroneous misconception. Trades do not take account of the actual faces of the participants. Therefore a market comprising 100 trades could have 5 winners and 30 losers on an actual head count basis. The reality of trading reflects this same equation in that there are a handful of consistent winners and a whole bunch of consistent losers.
So how does one go about joining the elite group of people who actually do trade for a living and do not charge ridiculous fees for advisories?
The first question you need to raise is a trick question and concerns your self - assessment which boils down to your personality. Are you a day trader or are you there for a longer strategic investment horizon? there's nothing wrong with day trading. However a trading method must suit the personality. You will see my answer below.
The second questions on your self - assessment really comes down to your level of your independence. Ask yourself a very fair question: how likely are you to initiate a trade on the basis of your own independent judgement without you having to pay for suspect advice and listening to others in the media? What is the level of your independent thinking process?
If the answers to both questions are that you do not trade according to time perspectives and that you are independent in the nature of your analysis then you are well on the way to matching some of the successful traders who consistently make money.
Hedge fund traders are not pressured by time or other people's opinions and more likely than not they will be around for years to come while other traders make money, blow themselves apart then come again six months later with a new account only to repeat the same failures.
In my very own global macro analysis the major barometers that Ilook at for 2016 are as follows:
1. US Dollar - 94.191 -0.323 -0.42% - the global base currency
So how does one go about joining the elite group of people who actually do trade for a living and do not charge ridiculous fees for advisories?
The first question you need to raise is a trick question and concerns your self - assessment which boils down to your personality. Are you a day trader or are you there for a longer strategic investment horizon? there's nothing wrong with day trading. However a trading method must suit the personality. You will see my answer below.
The second questions on your self - assessment really comes down to your level of your independence. Ask yourself a very fair question: how likely are you to initiate a trade on the basis of your own independent judgement without you having to pay for suspect advice and listening to others in the media? What is the level of your independent thinking process?
If the answers to both questions are that you do not trade according to time perspectives and that you are independent in the nature of your analysis then you are well on the way to matching some of the successful traders who consistently make money.
Hedge fund traders are not pressured by time or other people's opinions and more likely than not they will be around for years to come while other traders make money, blow themselves apart then come again six months later with a new account only to repeat the same failures.
In my very own global macro analysis the major barometers that Ilook at for 2016 are as follows:
1. US Dollar - 94.191 -0.323 -0.42% - the global base currency
2. EUR/USD - 1.139700 +0.003345 +0.29% - the 2nd liquid currency
3. GBPUSD British Pound 1.411600 +0.006200 +0.44%- the 3rd liquid currency
4. 30 DAY FED FUND May 99.630 0.000 0.00% the basis for US rates
5. DJI 17,576.96 + 35.00(0.20%) the body for US equities
6. S&P 500 2047.60 +5.69 +0.28% the core engine for US equities
7. VIX 16.70 - 0.57 - 3.30% - the volatility of US stock options
8. Crude Oil WTI - 39.66 +2.40 +6.39% - a barometer of world trade
9. Gold - 1240.535 +2.450 +0.20% - a hedge against inflation
These 9 elements are indeed interwoven into an intricate matrix of trading opportunities across the globe and 24hr time horizon which constitutes a global macro strategy.
9. Gold - 1240.535 +2.450 +0.20% - a hedge against inflation
These 9 elements are indeed interwoven into an intricate matrix of trading opportunities across the globe and 24hr time horizon which constitutes a global macro strategy.
Core to the analysis of these 9 elements is the fundamental analysis of each market.
Parallel to this level of analysis is the technical analysis which can be reduced to a few very simple axioms which include the study of the simple moving average 20 and 50 days as well as a Relative Strength Indicator, MACD and Stochastic setting to reflect the 20 to 50 days.
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| June 16 USDX - Courtesy Omega Research |
Successful traders trade an oscillation. Every time they see an RSI below 40 they look for other confirmations for a trade entry - buy and every time they see an RSI above 70 they seek other confirmations for trade entry - sell. Through this oscillating wave of price action what traders do not do is put a time perspective upon their trade. the trade could last 3 days or 3 weeks. Time is not the consideration. The consideration is how the price action can rise or fall within the context of the moving average and RSI as the main indicators. Couple this analysis with your own independence from market reporting and very soon you will be able to place your fingers on the pulse and understand how prices rise and fall and equate equilibrium only to move once again. Overlay this with a strong understanding of the fundamental aspects of the global economy and you will consistently outperform all the other traders who habitually lose because they do not have the ability to think for themselves.
Pieter Bergli - Trader X16
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CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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