Friday 16 January 2015

16th January 2015

Market Commentary -


US DX

92.520     +0.380 +0.49%

The US DX steadily inexorably marches on into positive territory  spite of all the fluster in Euro land. according to Reuters today - read full article here - http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/us-usa-fed-policy-insight-idUSKBN0KP0FD20150116?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
The US Fed will not change it's current outlook for mid-year rate hike in spite of the volatility in the currency markets the last 3 days. That is fueling the fixed income markets and the desire for US Treasuries and the US Dollar. Cheaper gas at the domestic pump ultimately translates into economic growth. 30 year Treasury Bonds were in firm demand and hitting new highs with the strengthening of the Greenback.

Support at 92.370  and Resistance at 93.210.




EUR/ USD

1.156910     -0.006590 -0.57%

With the plummet of the EUR on the back of the shock SNB move EUR government bonds firmed amid speculation that the new QE program of buying back debt will be larger than expected. The SNB move is a confirmation of that sentiment amongst bond dealers so the bonds market was firm bid today.

EUR Support at 1.1521 with Resistance at 1.1663.


Crude Oil

48.91     +2.18 +4.67%

The CL is seen to be stabilizing now as bid interest firms with the realization that economic growth in the US is about to 'lift-off' and the Fed's interest rate policy needs to make adjustments in the middle of this year. Oil has closed up for the first friday in the last 8 weeks on the back of bullish US economic sentiment. The IEA in its monthly report on Friday had commented - "A price recovery - barring any major disruption - may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn.

Support now at  46.21 and Resistance at 50.07.


Gold 

1275.300     +14.180 +1.12%


Feb Gold today took the spotlight after the furor of the currency markets eased off. Soaring to 1275 Gold is extending it's rally where just a week ago we were talking about Gold 1100. Should the longer term parity of the EUR to the USD be 1.00 then the SNB's sudden move has revitalized the Gold market to fresh interest from speculators.

Support at 1254.4  Resistance  at  1275.3.


Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

Forex education currency markets understanding

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