Global FX Economy 2nd Nov 2015. USD fizzles out. Markets, news and analysis.

Forex Market Commentary  

The major moves on the EUR/ USD are gone.

EUR/ USD grinding back on the 1.10 much to the consternation of the ECB. USDX lacks the punch against the basket of currencies as traders look for one last hurrah at the November FOMC. Surprises are not probable and the mixed feeling on US GDP growth is the only item on the list holding back the FOMC from hiking 25 basis points. That being said we are looking like a drift of a November. traders will close out position and show reluctance to accumulate positions as the market thins out in December. Back to economic fundamentals what on earth is troubling the US economy? The explanation lies in time lags; production decisions are pre-planned, hiring is forethought and current price speculations in commodities take time to show at the current level of economic activity. The upwards race of the USD in Q1 15 is only now demonstrating its effects on reduced corporate earnings in Q3 15. Moreover add to this consideration the relative economic fundamentals within a pair like the EUR/ USD and then one may understand the concept of divergence or convergence of interest rate spreads to distinguish between the relative strengths of the two counter-parties to the EUR/ USD. Bottom line the ECB needs to buy back debt to reflate the deflating Euro zone and the US Fed needs to issue debt to control growth: two fundamentally different economic perspectives which form the rationale for a lower EUR/ USD. Meantime small traders watch for 300-400 pip trading bands on the EUR/ USD and take note of the recent run up of gold bullion to the 1200 and its current quick slide back down to 1130.

The Dow doesnt believe the USD will firm anymore this year; hence a good day on Wall Street with buyers coming back looking for bargains and the Dow closing at 17828.76 or  +165.22 +0.94%

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar 
96.885     -0.027 -0.03%
Support 94.213     Resistance 98.993
Forward 1 year - 95.259s.

EUR/ USD
1.100870     -0.001765 -0.16%
Support   1.08173         Resistance 1.1393
Forward 1 year - 1.14600s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

46.21     +0.07 +0.15%

Support 42.63  Resistance 48.31
Forward 1 year - 52.07s.

Gold

1134.06     -6.89 -0.60%

Support  1,160.2    Resistance 1,191.2
Forward 1 year  - 1,186.5s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets

Forex market commentaries and media reports for free 

  
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer -  http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.



* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies