Forex Market Commentary
US Thankgsgiving and Black Friday saves the Euro
A respite in the US markets only saved the EUR/ USD from rapid erosion as the market bounced of the 1.0550 to end session at 1.0580. A strong retail sales on traditional post US Thanksgiving can push the EUR/USD through what was previously thought to be a strong band of support at 1.05. In short commercial banks were a no show at the 1.06 at the bid which augur bad and suggests there could well be another 300 pips down as this first probe to the 105 snapped support with little fight in it. Why? Answer = ECB supremo Mario Draghi talking that Euro down with more expansive suggestions of bond repurchasing and a sluggish global economy looming on the horizon. But Germany is not happy at all to see their 10 yr Bund yields slipping further and further to the 0.3% region with concerns over Euro zone deflation.
Small traders watching the EUR/ USD beware of further erosion from the 1.05 region to the 1.03 region even prior to the critical US December NFP data and FOMC. The current move is not a large spec action in an area that may prove to be highly contentious and volatile. Large bank OTC block trading proved to be non existent at the 1.06 mark as previously thought and the dealer noise is to expect the true support for the EUR/ USD. Consolidation below 1.0480 would be viewed as a significant challenge to the currency pair with a view to a march to parity sooner than later in Q1 Q2 2016. A slowing global economy as reflected in equities however should eventually slow the rise in value of USD and slow the erosion of price in crude oil markets. Meanwhile gold bullion touches the 1050 region as expected and is considered technically weak to hold even that with shorts eying a move to 1000.
Important data:
Equities:
Asia:
Nikkei 225 19,883.94 27 - 60.47 (0.30%)
SSE Composite 3,436.30 27 - 199.25 (5.48%)
Hang Seng 22,068.32 27 N - 420.62 (1.87%)
Europe:
DAX 11,293.76 - 27.01 (0.24%)
CAC 4,930.14 - 15.88 (0.32%)
USA:
Dow 17,798.49 - 14.90 (0.08%)
Fixed Income Markets:
US Federal Reserve - +0.25%
ECB Base rate 0.050 %
Chinese interest rate PBC China 4.60 %
Japanese interest rate (BoJ) 0.10 %
Important moving averages:
USDX above the 50 day m.at 97
EUR/ USD below the 50 day m.a at 1.10
Crude Oil WTI below the 50 day m.a. at 47
Gold below 50 day m.a. at 1130
US - 30 DAY FED FUND below 50 day m.a. at 97.55
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES below 50 day m.a at 127.30
In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
EUR/ USD
Support 40.30 Resistance 43.40
Gold
1058.760 -10.625 -0.99%
Support 1,050.1 Resistance 1,055.7
Forward 1 year - 1,060.0s.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
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US Dollar
100.090 +0.224 +0.29%
Support 98.848 Resistance 101.998
Forward 1 year - 102.67s.
100.090 +0.224 +0.29%
Support 98.848 Resistance 101.998
Forward 1 year - 102.67s.
EUR/ USD
1.059300 -0.001820 -0.17%
Support 1.05107 Resistance 1.06987
Forward 1 year - 1.06290s.
Support 1.05107 Resistance 1.06987
Forward 1 year - 1.06290s.
Crude Oil WTI
41.84 -0.67 -1.58%
Forward 1 year - 45.27s.
Gold
Support 1,050.1 Resistance 1,055.7
Forward 1 year - 1,060.0s.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers.
* European Union laws require European Union visitors to this blog to know that cookies are used by Blogger and Google, including use of Google Analytics and AdSense cookies and in reading material from this blog do consent to the use of such cookies
