Forex Market Commentary
A pregnant pause for the FOMC.
It's all about the US Monetary policy that is going to send market off in a much needed direction as it comes this week. In spite of a very soft, dovish reflection by the ECB with expectations of declining rates still the Euro has maintained it's current stability due to trader's reluctance to take major positions in what may become a water shed for the remainder of the trading calendar year. Much of the Dollar decline in recent weeks could be due to the vastly superior amount of Dollar long speculative positions which are seeking to unwind in the 2 months ahead. The EUR/ USD in particular with about 60% shorts in the market needs some more release and short covering bounces can be expected particularly if a rate hike does not come in then watch for the 1.17 mark as the Euro tries to regain some ground in what is clearly at the moment an over sold currency pair. Clearly traders are nervous and we expect a thin volume until Wednesday this week. Similarly crude oil and gold bullion does not wish to move until we see a clear signal from the FOMC later this week. If anything at all either way equities, bonds, forex and commodities will all see larger price action over the next few days as markets wait with bated breath.
Read on Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/u-s-stock-index-futures-climb-before-fed-meeting-solera-jumps
Important moving averages to watch out for prior to FOMC rate decision:
USDX below the 50 day m.at 96.5.
EUR/ USD above 50 day m.a at 1.11
Crude Oil WTI at 50 day m.a. at 46
Gold at 50 day m.a. at 1130
US - 30 DAY FED FUND at 50 day m.a. at 99.77
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES above 50 day m.a at 126.5
EUR/ USD above 50 day m.a at 1.11
Crude Oil WTI at 50 day m.a. at 46
Gold at 50 day m.a. at 1130
US - 30 DAY FED FUND at 50 day m.a. at 99.77
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES above 50 day m.a at 126.5
In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
95.238 -0.044 -0.06%
Support 94.768 Resistance 95.888
Forward 1 year - 95.824s.
95.238 -0.044 -0.06%
Support 94.768 Resistance 95.888
Forward 1 year - 95.824s.
EUR/USD
1.13185 +0.00095 +0.08%
Support 1.12173 Resistance 1.14093
Forward 1 year - 1.14350s.
1.13185 +0.00095 +0.08%
Support 1.12173 Resistance 1.14093
Forward 1 year - 1.14350s.
Crude Oil WTI
44.62 +0.19 +0.42%
Support 43.17 Resistance 46.61
Forward 1 year - 50.28s.
Forward 1 year - 50.28s.
Gold
1107.800 -0.370 -0.03%
Forward 1 year - 1,107.9s.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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