Global FX Economy 30th Sept 2015, Dow upbeat. Currency markets, news and analysis.

Forex Market Commentary  

Dow end positive.

The Dow ends up some +235.57 or +1.47% to close in positive territory at 16284.70.  Officially Q3 comes to an end today and it has without doubt been the worst performing quarter for the Dow over the last 4 years.   A general cheer all round: the US private employers added some 200,000 jobs in September which is a really strong showing and a jolt in the face of the recent China equities crisis. America is hiring and Q3 is always the most important indicator of where the economy is headed. with the Fed's conditions of inflation targets not met, equities have a joyful day as bargain hunters seek to take positions in a battered US equities market.

USD was strong bid in the wave of strong equities trading and the EUR/ USD pair skewed in favor of the USD with the Euro slipping to the 1.11 and looking more likely to re test the 1.08 should US Q4 data show more encouraging signs of inflationary pressure building up in the domestic economy. Crude oil gets some cheer when the Dow reflects strength and rises to 45 whilst bullion loses its shine slipping further from the 1150 mark and looking likely to re test the 1100 support.

Like it or not US corporates can only adjust to a strong US Dollar advance that looks very likely now for 2016 given the strong resilience of the US economy in one of the worst storms seen since 2008 with a year that first brought us the Grexit drama and then the China crisis. But the big question remains; how far can the US economy go on with a strengthening Dollar next year?



Read on Bloomberg the wave of optimism returning to US equities:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/u-s-futures-rally-as-s-p-500-nears-its-worst-quarter-since-2011

and on the IMF outlook for slower growth ahead for 2016:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/lagarde-says-fed-hike-slowing-china-to-challenge-world-economy 

In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
96.263     -0.019 -0.02%    
Support 94.569     Resistance 96.849
Forward 1 year - 95.534s.

EUR/USD
1.117150     -0.008050 -0.72%
Support   1.10853          Resistance 1.14673
Forward 1 year - 1.14840s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

45.33     +0.24 +0.53%

Support 42.53  Resistance  48.11
Forward 1 year - 50.46s.

Gold

1115.480     -8.305 -0.74%

Support  1,131.1    Resistance 1,150.1
Forward 1 year  -  1,138.1s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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