Forex Market Commentary
Consolidation theme of the day; lack of direction.
The general consensus with US equities is that we are entering into a bear market and that corporate earnings will hit the floor the moment the Fed dares to raise rates and allow the USD to float up further viz a viz the major basket of currencies to hurt US corporate earnings abroad. That being the general extreme viewpoint of nervous Fortune 500 CEO's. However analysts are divided with some suggesting buy at the dips and others suggesting to sell into the rallies. Overall there is a lack of direction due to the wait and see strategy of the US Fed. Credit markets are trading near 30 basis points on the front end Treasuries but the Fed is unwilling to acknowledge an official hike. Altogether the reluctance of the Fed to raise rates now rather than later is costing US equities markets a gruesome slide. Most analysts feel better get it over and done with than to continue to allow volatility to jump up and down on a daily basis.
Read on Bloomberg the anxiety of investors as the Fed continues to wait:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/pimco-sees-fed-phantom-rate-hike-at-root-of-market-volatility
and on Reuters read about the amazing fall of the house that Marc Rich built:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-glencore-trading-idUSKCN0RT21A20150930
Once again to reiterate our viewpoint:
With the EUR/ USD strong resistance lies ahead at the 1.14 and support at the 1.10 with a bias to the upside with more short covering on open short positions due to the current Dollar woes off the back of a global slow down. Further resistance and support lies at the key 1.17 and 1.05 for major technical breakouts..
USDX has a bias for lower to the 93 mark failing to consolidate at 96 for another upward challenge on the 98.
Crude Oil should come under serious tests this week to stay above the 40 Dollar mark given the crisis in the commodities sector and needs see more encouraging news from China.
Gold Bullion needs to see a test of the 1120 to confirm a bearish bias whilst USD has run out of momentum as with commodities gold should come under selling pressure and needs stay above 1150 to confirm an upward bias.
In speaking of moving averages; markets are not rational and daily price action volatile, but in the longer run trader expectation and negative sentiment can be collectively summed up through the 50 day moving average. Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
96.015 +0.120 +0.15%
Support 94.569 Resistance 96.849
Forward 1 year - 95.534s.
96.015 +0.120 +0.15%
Support 94.569 Resistance 96.849
Forward 1 year - 95.534s.
EUR/USD
1.124510 -0.000690 -0.06%
Support 1.10853 Resistance 1.14673
Forward 1 year - 1.14840s.
1.124510 -0.000690 -0.06%
Support 1.10853 Resistance 1.14673
Forward 1 year - 1.14840s.
Crude Oil WTI
44.94 -0.29 -0.65%
Support 42.53 Resistance 48.11
Forward 1 year - 50.46s.
Forward 1 year - 50.46s.
Gold
1126.450 +2.665 +0.24%
Forward 1 year - 1,138.1s.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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