Monday 16 February 2015

16th February 2015

Market Commentary

Market holiday in the US. Monday inconclusive with the Euro zone finance minsters over Greece and traders are not happy but nervous to pull the trigger. With 26 trillion dollars in EUR currency derivatives outstanding nobody wants to see the kind of move a grexit can cause - such a scenario would be far more seriously damaging than the 1 day blip caused by the shock SNB anouncement when its currency moved over 30% value in 30 minutes.The real fear gripping the market is that large movements on the EUR can push sell stops and lead to massive losses in the spot compounding the misery factor in EUR currency derivatives. The ECB is well aware of the position of EUR in the derivatives markets and this responsibility to defend the currency and yet the indecision is paralyzing traders. Relatively speaking Dollar fundamentals are strong and stable with a robust economic output given the low crude oil prices today. Oil though looks uncertain and moves above 55 seem very unlikely.
 
US DX
94.382     +0.446 +0.57% 
Support   93.783
  Resistance 94.663


EUR

1.13310     -0.00869 -0.76%
Support    1.13443        Resistance   1.14723


Crude Oil

53.49     -0.18 -0.34%
Support    50.01         Resistance   54.81


Gold

1230.98    -2.21 -0.18%
Support    1219.1            Resistance   1231.1

       

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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