The US Dollar refuses to drift lower for the weekend. Strong fundamentals come to bear even in the face of recent economic data pointing to inflation decreasing which has recently spurred the Treasury markets, read at Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-28/treasuries-rally-as-yellen-sees-low-inflation-declining-further in addition some surveys in the US are actually pointing to a slow down of US manufacturing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/we-ve-just-received-a-bunch-of-disappointing-news-on-u-s-manufacturing and so the jury is still out on possible rate hikes which will very much depend upon the US stock market to make use of the cheap available credit to engineer sturdy economic growth for 2015. The S&P 500 posted its best monthly gain since October 2011 today Friday. The S&P 500 gained 5.5 percent for February and the Nasdaq has risen 7.1 percent also which is its best monthly performance ever since January 2012. Certainly New York Fed President William Dudley makes that case with his recent comments that better late than never - http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/27/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN0LV2MJ20150227
The Euro bashing party has stopped as fears of a Grexit dissipate and fundamentals of Euro land debt come under core analysis. Although the Eur is trending sideways at the moment vs USD the recent rate of decline slow down has more to do with the lack of any convincing data to push the USD higher. Given that the ECB has only just initiated a Q.E. program largely because of Greece, it is hard to defend the EUR as lower future prospects may seem likely as the ECB pumps more liquidity into the bonds markets. More importantly, the International Monetary Market (IMM) non-commercial positioning, which covers currency investors' positions for the week ending 17 February 2015, shows us that for the first time since 2 December 2014, the net short positions on the EUR have actually decreased, which implies a reduced interest in selling the euro. In short, large currency speculators are now sitting on the sidelines since the major component of the sell pressure on the EUR has already taken effect.
Chart courtesy Bloomberg.
Crude Oil seems to have found it's balance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has reduced its 2015 U.S. crude production forecast to 9.3 million barrels a day down from 9.42 million in November. So the overall Saudi plan of tumbling prices is starting to pay off. USA is cutting back on production and layoffs are mounting. High cost firms are going to the wall as firms look to become more efficient and speculators are on the run as oil fundamentals tries to establish an equilibrium price for this year in the 45-55 range. Although Saudi will suffer short term budget deficits for 2015, it is hoping to regain market share and re-balance the world crude oil production order.
US DX
95.256 -0.001 -0.00%
Support 94.620 Resistance 95.790
EUR
1.11955 -0.00105 -0.09%
Support 1.11350 Resistance 1.12790
Crude Oil
49.39 +1.22 +2.49%
Support 47.91 Resistance 50.87
Gold
1213.350 +3.435 +0.28%
Support 1,197.0 Resistance 1,227.2
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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