Market Commentary
Greece and the story of Euro currency resilience is the theme of an article on Bloomberg today http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-23/greece-debt-wrangling-hands-surprise-to-euro-bears-currencies?cmpid=yhoo a few years back the prolonged crisis would have been ample ammunition for large currency speculators to take decisive short action. there are 2 points to watch out for here at the moment. 1. political indecision at the ECB doesnt necessarily immediately translate into an investor panic on the Euro fixed income market. 2. we have to place this ECB wrangling juxtaposition with another event in the US which is now playing itself out given last weeks dire economic indicators and that is a possible fall in yield in US debt. For several months now the Fed has been trying to wean the market and get it acclimatised for the inevitable rate hike. But yesterday the bonds markets got over the shock of last weeks poor US data and took action. Yields in US treasury fell to 0.19% giving Dollar investors serious concern to rethink their major Dollar long positions. So far the difference between global quality yield curves has led investors to flock to US 1-2 year debt. When investors can take home 2% yield on US 10 yr debt over 0.4% on German debt the fundamentals for Dollar investment with its additional benign inflation still looks strong in spite of the blip last week in US economic data. All in all currency speculators may yet prove unwilling to take large bets against the Dollar. A short term top may have been posted at the 95 but the shorts are quick on the dips and nothing substantial there. we could be in for a slow pullback to the 90 mark but without large speculative action as the large players hold off for another reason for a Dollar rally and surely it will come soon enough. Crude oil is drifting lower again, there seems to be no fundamental reason why prices should sustain a challenge above the 55 on the WTI. It is simply a matter of economic fundamentals. the market cant take any more of this high end production. something has to give or we may see the shorts running down to the low 40's again.
US DX
94.577 +0.024 +0.03%
Support 94.042 Resistance 95.332
EUR
1.13330 -0.00510 -0.45%
Support 1.12447 Resistance 1.14427
Crude Oil
49.52 +0.07 +0.14%
Support 47.38 Resistance 52.02
Gold
1201.975 -1.010 -0.08%
Support 1,180.9 Resistance 1,220.3
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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