Forex Market Commentary
Sideways channel; that's exactly what we have going on here at the moment. EUR/USD doesnt have the strength to make a push through the 1.15 and equally USD doesn't have the drive to take the pair to the 1.05. The two main factors behind the USD slow down undoubtedly is the recent spate of sluggish US economic data as well as the anxiety in the bonds markets that last 30 days which has seen global bonds prices plunge as yields rise. No matter what the mixed signals are coming from the US Fed, if the markets are anything to go by and they should be the foundation indicator of benchmark yields, then US rates and Euro rates are slowly but surely on the rise to dampen the urge for global commodity price inflation as a result of crude oil creeping back up. Everyone, including the shoe shine boy, knows that global equities are inflated and equally bonds prices have reached their stellar point from which surely the drop must come.
See on Bloomberg today the explanation behind the bond market meltdown -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-12/bond-market-meltdown-deconstructed-five-charts-that-explain-why
Shanghai to New York it's been a great 6 years in equities and bonds because of the cheap credit. Yields must go up and consequently USD strength must rebound should Q2 and Q3 even show the slightest wisp of satisfactory growth. summer drives are just round the corner; gasoline at the pump will be in high demand; refineries will be ramping up fuel production and purchasing more crude oil. A 25 basis points official increment is already a foregone conclusion.
Please read this good article on Reuters today about hedge funds getting caught in the market short. if specs think that crude oil could collapse just as easily as they did 6 months ago then wake up everybody because that is not happening. Crude oil is a commodity with physical demand and supply economics.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/11/uk-crude-hedgefunds-kemp-idUSKBN0NW1AN20150511?feedType=RSS&feedName=everything&virtualBrandChannel=11563
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
See on Bloomberg today the explanation behind the bond market meltdown -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-12/bond-market-meltdown-deconstructed-five-charts-that-explain-why
Shanghai to New York it's been a great 6 years in equities and bonds because of the cheap credit. Yields must go up and consequently USD strength must rebound should Q2 and Q3 even show the slightest wisp of satisfactory growth. summer drives are just round the corner; gasoline at the pump will be in high demand; refineries will be ramping up fuel production and purchasing more crude oil. A 25 basis points official increment is already a foregone conclusion.
Please read this good article on Reuters today about hedge funds getting caught in the market short. if specs think that crude oil could collapse just as easily as they did 6 months ago then wake up everybody because that is not happening. Crude oil is a commodity with physical demand and supply economics.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/11/uk-crude-hedgefunds-kemp-idUSKBN0NW1AN20150511?feedType=RSS&feedName=everything&virtualBrandChannel=11563
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
94.482 -0.079 -0.10%
94.482 -0.079 -0.10%
Support 93.775 Resistance 95.665
Forward 1 year - 95.661. Flat line.
Forward 1 year - 95.661. Flat line.
EUR
1.120655 +0.005895 +0.53%
Support 1.10710 Resistance 1.13610
Forward 1 year - 1.13170. Flat line.
Crude Oil
62.21 +0.47 +0.78%
Support 60.18 Resistance 62.65
Forward 1 year - 65.10. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 65.10. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1193.215 +9.800 +0.83%
Support 1,172.9 Resistance 1,206.1
Forward 1 year - 1,198.0 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
