Forex Market Commentary
USD holding but waning interest is leading specs to close out positions gradually as the cost of the last 9 months begins to take its toll. USD has grown to far too fast and then needs to be a pause in this market. against major counter-parties like EUR, GBP, YEN and CAD the USD has grown well over 10% in the last 6 months. Weaker Dollar is good news for the US stock markets. The Dow is climbing to the 18070 mark and looking good and just as important the 30yr US Treasury Bonds are holding as prices go up when yield goes down. Market sentiment is now reaching a stronger consensus that even if commodity inflation starts to creep up the US Fed really cannot move interest rates up particularly if the bonds markets are pricing yields at a lower rate. So we have this respite at the moment in the Dollar market. We have to remember how the SNB in January announced the end of its 3 year attempt to maintain the CHF at a cap of 1.2 Swiss francs to the EUR and subsequently the CHF was allowed to soar. Thus all in all the SNB action amplifies the understanding that it is the market that dictates pricing. The US Fed would be more inclined to watch where the bonds markets are pricing Treasuries than to artificially hold rates at levels the markets stray from in trading.
Today - the key U.S. reports to watch for are - 1. March factory orders (expected +2.0% after Feb's +0.2%) and 2. the April New York ISM index (March was -13.1 to 50.0). Any fresh under shooting will certainly encourage more Dollar longs to exit the market.
Crude oil continues to impress despite the naysayers predicting calamity. Watch on Bloomberg an interesting report on crude oil demand and why prices should go back up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-04/we-re-seeing-a-u-shaped-recovery-in-oil-industry-brikho
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Crude oil continues to impress despite the naysayers predicting calamity. Watch on Bloomberg an interesting report on crude oil demand and why prices should go back up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-04/we-re-seeing-a-u-shaped-recovery-in-oil-industry-brikho
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always
look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding
in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional
technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages
as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price
action.
USDX
95.425 -0.018 -0.02%
Support 94.932 Resistance 96.132
Forward 1 year - 96.817. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 96.817. Low growth positive line.
EUR
1.114655 -0.004045 -0.36%
Support 1.10663 Resistance 1.12703
Forward 1 year - 1.12410. Low growth positive line.
Crude Oil
58.93 0.00 0.00%
Support 57.76 Resistance 60.32
Forward 1 year - 63.95. Medium growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 63.95. Medium growth positive line.
Gold
1188.55 +5.15 +0.44%
Support 1,169.7 Resistance 1,200.7
Forward 1 year - 1,192 Flat line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
