Forex Market Commentary
EUR/USD we're definitely at a watershed here and specs on the sidelines expecting the EUR to crack with its assault on the 1.14 are possibly in for a rude shock. Firstly Euro land equities firmed late yesterday and are expected to rise on friday after Mario Draghi reassuring comments when speaking at the IMF in Washington where he stated that the ECB will "implement in full" its bond-buying program for
"as long as needed." also the ECB chief commented - "While we have already seen a substantial effect
of our measures on asset prices and economic confidence, what ultimately
matters is that we see an equivalent effect on investment, consumption
and inflation". With Greece no longer the wild child threatening to tear down the Euro currency and strong economic data coming out of Germany in particular a strengthening of the EUR/ USD is now seen. But with the Us labor marketing tightening and Q2-3 yet to play it would take more shifts in outlook on the US economy than Euro land per se to drive the EUR/ USD through the 1.15 mark so though the market is edging up specs would rather wait for the Euro interest to fizzle out and jump in and initiate fresh EUR/ USD shorts and Dollar longs should the USDX come near the 90 range. But nearly 6 years of near zero percent money since 2008 and still the US economy is a fragile wisp of a flame with weak economic growth even with inflation creeping towards the 2% fed target mark. So what does it take for the US economy to finally push on and roar? read on Bloomberg now David Rosenberg's take on why exactly the US economy is not coming out into a Goldilocks equation -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/david-rosenberg-here-s-why-u-s-consumer-spending-hasn-t-gone-gangbusters-yet
EUR traders maybe be inching up towards the 1.15 but would surely need to take put option cover to protect any long position. The USD is like a slumbering giant that maybe awakened whilst it is losing ground in its slumber. Till then Gold rejoices and crude oil marches on as with most commodity enjoying the fall out from a weaker Dollar. US equities cheer and Bonds markets could yet see some stabilization after recent price losses.
Please see on Reuters why crude oil is gaining strength which could help dampen Dollar interest -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0O004M20150515
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/david-rosenberg-here-s-why-u-s-consumer-spending-hasn-t-gone-gangbusters-yet
EUR traders maybe be inching up towards the 1.15 but would surely need to take put option cover to protect any long position. The USD is like a slumbering giant that maybe awakened whilst it is losing ground in its slumber. Till then Gold rejoices and crude oil marches on as with most commodity enjoying the fall out from a weaker Dollar. US equities cheer and Bonds markets could yet see some stabilization after recent price losses.
Please see on Reuters why crude oil is gaining strength which could help dampen Dollar interest -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0O004M20150515
Please note that technical data should only be used as a guide but be aware that it is the fundamental data which becomes the trigger that pushes prices into equilibrium of demand and supply.
Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.
USDX
US Dollar
93.444 +0.056 +0.07%
93.444 +0.056 +0.07%
Support 92.828 Resistance 94.158
Forward 1 year - 94.458. Flat line.
Forward 1 year - 94.458. Flat line.
EUR
1.140295 +0.000495 +0.04%
Support 1.12873 Resistance 1.15133
Forward 1 year - 1.14860. Flat line.
Crude Oil
60.73 -0.11 -0.18%
Support 58.55 Resistance 61.51
Forward 1 year - 63.99. Low growth positive line.
Forward 1 year - 63.99. Low growth positive line.
Gold
1218.960 -2.545 -0.21%
Support 1,205.8 Resistance 1,237.4
Forward 1 year - 1,230.9 Low growth line.
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
A non-profit commitment to provide education on the properties of currency markets
Forex market commentaries and media reports for free
Disclaimer - U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Futures and Options trading involves risks of losses. No representation is being made that any reader and account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those that are being discussed on this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/. The past performance of any trading system or methodology discussed is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this blog http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ are for educative and illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations for actual trades. Disclaimer - http://forexeducationperspective.blogspot.com/ bears no responsibility for the trading actions of its readers
