14th August 2015 Currency markets, news and analysis

Forex Market Commentary  

Once again our analysis of the FX markets stems from the 4 main pillars of study - The USD, by virtue of being the 'international' currency of global choice, the 'Euro' being the second most trade-able currency, crude oil as a barometer of economic activity and gold as an economic store of value. From these 4 pillars of study we are able to expand into an analysis of what's going on in equities and fixed income to give us a broad sweep and understanding of the markets and how they work as a whole.


Important Indicators:

Equities:

Dow Industrial    17477.40   Up  69.15 (+0.40%)
Euro STOXX50 3613.00 Flat.
Nikkei 225   20,519.45 Down 76.10 (0.37%)
SSE Composite Index    3,965.33 Up 10.78(0.27%)
Hang Seng    23,991.03    Down 27.77 (0.12%)


Fixed Income Markets:

US - 30 DAY FED FUND    99.755   Down 0.005    -0.01%
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES    127.359375    Down 0.156250    -0.12%
ECB Base rate 0.050 %
Chinese interest rate PBC     China     4.850 %
Japanese interest rate (BoJ)    0.10 %


Important moving averages:

USDX  at the 50 day m.a 96.
EUR/ USD above 50 day m.a at 1.10
Crude Oil WTI below 50 day m.a. at 52
Gold below 50 day m.a. at 1140
US - 30 DAY FED FUND below 50 day m.a. at 99.78
US - 10 YEAR T-NOTES above 50 day m.a at 126.5
 
Overall reflection: in spite of a radical upheaval of Chinese Interest rates and currency devaluation global equities have recovered over the initial shock with stability normalizing equities. USDX lacks Q3 data for the next big push, EUR/USD holding it's ground firmly, Crude Oil stabilizing at the 45-55 channel and Gold bounce for flight to safety may run out of steam in the weeks ahead.

 

Always look to support and resistance band lines as the key to understanding in the long and short term where prices are converging. Professional technical traders use 50 day and 200 day medium and slow moving averages as fundamental cornerstones for interpreting the direction of price action.

USDX

US Dollar
96.583     Up 0.228 +0.29%
Support 95.839 Resistance 97.015
Forward 1 year - 97.273s.

EUR/USD
1.1108     Flat
Support   1.10487      Resistance 1.12307
Forward 1 year - 1.14160s.  

Crude Oil  WTI

43.11     Down 0.25 -0.58%

Support 40.66  Resistance  43.88
Forward 1 year - 51.17s.

Gold

1115.04     Up 0.99 +0.09%

Support  1,105.3     Resistance 1,123.5
Forward 1 year  -  1,119.1s.

Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings

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