Forex market outlook for the week ahead:
The
4 main pillars of of our study within the setting of this week's
calendar of economic reporting are as follows - The USD, by virtue of
being the 'international' currency of global choice, the 'Euro' being
the second most trade-able currency, crude oil as a barometer of
economic activity and gold as an economic store of value.
Looking forward we can see EUR/ USD holding its ground around the 1.09 mark with specs unlikely to add new shorts on the position without any significant changes to USD employment report this week. ISM should give us an indication of the buoyancy of the manufacturing industry in the face of a stronger US Dollar. USDX unlikely to challenge the 100 mark this week and more likely to slip to the 96 territory. With crude oil all eyes on China once again and a restoration of calm in the equities markets. The Iran deal may have shaved 5 dollars off WTI but any signs of consolidation in Chinese equities is going to have an impact on crude oil and a stabilizing at the 48 Dollar mark on WTI futures front end contracts. Similarly analysts will be looking at the US ISM as an indicator for further crude oil demand. without commodity inflation and sans global conflagration in the equities and bonds markets bullion can only drift down to the 1050 mark but will run into strong support as equilibrium in the physical market is arriving with supply satisfying demand.
This coming week important select data reports to watch out for are the following:
Looking forward we can see EUR/ USD holding its ground around the 1.09 mark with specs unlikely to add new shorts on the position without any significant changes to USD employment report this week. ISM should give us an indication of the buoyancy of the manufacturing industry in the face of a stronger US Dollar. USDX unlikely to challenge the 100 mark this week and more likely to slip to the 96 territory. With crude oil all eyes on China once again and a restoration of calm in the equities markets. The Iran deal may have shaved 5 dollars off WTI but any signs of consolidation in Chinese equities is going to have an impact on crude oil and a stabilizing at the 48 Dollar mark on WTI futures front end contracts. Similarly analysts will be looking at the US ISM as an indicator for further crude oil demand. without commodity inflation and sans global conflagration in the equities and bonds markets bullion can only drift down to the 1050 mark but will run into strong support as equilibrium in the physical market is arriving with supply satisfying demand.
This coming week important select data reports to watch out for are the following:
Mon 3 August -
USD - Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN) Forecast 1.2% Previous 1.2%
USD - ISM Manufacturing (JUL) Forecast 53.5 Previous 53.5
Wed 3 August -
USD - ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JUL) Forecast 56.2 Previous 56
Thu 6 August -
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.5%
GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
Fri 7 August -
USD Unemployment Rate (JUL) Forecast 5.3% Previous 5.3%
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUL) Forecast 225k Previous 223k
Pieter Bergli - DeLoren Trust Holdings
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